Kuhamba sinyatselo ngesinyatselo · Sibonelo · emaminithi 7

Sinyatselo ngesinyatselo: Luchungechunge lwe-Paroli

Emadola lalishumi kulokumnyama, aphindvwa kabili ngemuva kwako konkhe kuwina, agcinwe ngemuva kwekuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana. I-Martingale lephambene, kujikeleta ngekujikeleta.

Imphendvulo lemfisha

Iseshini lelingisiwe ye-Paroli yekujikeleta lokungu-80. Kulahlekelwa lokulishumi nakutsatfu ekujikeleteni kwekucala, luchungechunge lolwephukile lolumashumi lamabili nakune kanye nekuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana lokuphelele katsatfu lokwakhokha $70 ngamunye. Umphumela −$160 ngemuva kwekuba etulu nga-$50. Luhlelo lolulahlekelwa kanyenti futsi luwine kancane, ngesimo tibalo letisibikezelako.

lisisekelo

$10 kulokumnyama

inhloso

kuwina ka-3 kulandzelana

p(kuwina kutsatfu)

11.5%

umphumela ekuwineni kutsatfu ngakunye

+$70

Hamba neluhlelo

Kuwina kuya esinyatselweni lesilandzelako. Kulahlekelwa, nobe kuwina kwesitsatfu, kubuyela ekucaleni.

lelibhejwako lelilandzelako1umphumela kute kube nyalo0kujikeleta0

Emanani labhejwako nemiphumela akumayunithi ekubheja lokusisekelo.

Luhlelo

Bheja $10 kulokumnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe →. Ngemuva kwekuwina, yekela i-$20 ihlale etafuleni. Ngemuva kwekuwina kwesibili, yekela i-$40 ihlale. Ngemuva kwekuwina kwesitsatfu, susa i-$80 bese uyacala futsi nga-$10. Kulahlekelwa nanoma kukuphi kucala kabusha nga-$10. Umzamo ngamunye ubeka engotini $10 yemali yetfu futsi uwina $70 nangabe lokumnyama kufika katsatfu kulandzelana, loko lokwenteka ku-(18/37)³ = 11.5% wetikhatsi. Silindzele cishe luchungechunge lunye loluphelele emizamweni lesiligcabhanyiswa.

Kujikeleta 1–25

B M M B B M B M M B M M B B M B 0 M M M M B M M B. Imizamo lelishumi nakubili: lemine yalahlekelwa ekujikeleteni kwekucala (−$10 ngamunye, munye wayo elicandzenilisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe →), lemitsatfu yalahlekelwa ekujikeleteni kwesibili (−$10 ngamunye, ngobe i-$20 beyiyimali yelikhasino kanye neyetfu), lemine yalahlekelwa ekujikeleteni kwesitsatfu (−$10 ngamunye, ngendlela lefanako), kuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana kunye lokuphelele ekujikeleteni 18–20 (+$70). Umphumela −$40. Luchungechunge loluphelele lwativa njengebufakazi. Kwehluleka lokulishumi nakunye kwakuva njengalutfo, futsi loko kuyinjongo yalomklamo.

umzamoluchungechungeemanani labhejwakoumphumela

1B10−$10

2M M B10, 20, 40−$10

3B10−$10

4M B10, 20−$10

5M M B10, 20, 40−$10

6–9M M B · B · M B · 0≤ 40−$40

10M M M10, 20, 40 → $80 iyasuswa+$70

11–12M B · M M B≤ 40−$20

ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-25imizamo lengu-12, u-1 wekuwina kutsatfu−$40

Kuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana lokuphelele kunye kuva njengebufakazi; emathokheni lalishumi nakunye lalahleka endleleni ava njengalutfo.

Kujikeleta 26–55

Kuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana lokunye kabili, ekujikeleteni 28–30 na-37–39, ngakunye kuyincenye yeluchungechunge lwaletimnyama letine lesatigcina ngemuva kwaletintsatfu: lokumnyama kwesine kwawina i-$10 lensha futsi lokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → lokwalandzela kwatsatsa i-$20. Imizamo lelishumi nesihlanu, umphumela walengcenye +$10; sekukonkhe −$30; lokuphakeme kakhulu +$50 ekujikeleteni 39. Kuwina kutsatfu kulandzelana katsatfu emizamweni lengu-27 kungu-3.1 lokulindzelekile; ekuphakameni iseshini isetulu nga-$50 futsi iva njengendlela.

Lesi seshini naletinye letiligcabhanyiswa letifana nasoumphumela ngekucatsaniswa nesicalo

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · lokunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, lokuluhlata lwesibhakabhaka lolukhanyako phakatsi, emasampula langu-82 lafiphele · hambisa etulu kweshadi kute ubone ema-quantile ekujikeleteni

p10 −$780
p25 −$510
phakatsi −$210
p75 +$90
p90 +$370

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · i-y-axis incunyelwe ku-percentile ye-1–99 (lokwecile −$1,000 kuya ku-+$1,570) · kujikeleta lokungu-500 · sisekelo $10 · lokulingana nemali

Linyenti lemigca liya phansi kancane ngetinyatselo ta-$10 bese leca etulu nga-$70 ngetikhatsi letitsite. Silinganiso sayo lelishumi silinganiso semuntfu lobheja ngelinani linye: −2.70% wako konkhe lokubhejiwe.

Kujikeleta 56–80

Imizamo lelishumi nakutsatfu leyalahlekelwa kulandzelana, lesiligcabhanyiswa yayo ekujikeleteni kwesibili noma kwesitsatfu lapho luchungechunge lwaphela kusasele lokumnyama kunye noma kubili. Umphumela −$130 kulengcenye; ekugcineni −$160. Luchungechunge lwekwehluleka lunelitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lelicishe libe ngu-20%, lokusho kutsi kutawentekela umdlali we-ParolilisuParoliKwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina: phindza kabili ngemuva kwekuwina, buyela ekucaleni ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa noma ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu kulandzelana. Kuphindze kutsiwe: i-Martingale lephambene.Fundza konkhe → cishe kuyo yonkhe iseshini yesihlanu yalobudze.

Tibalo

Imali yonkhe lebhejiwe $1,460 ekujikeleteni lokungu-80 nangabe kucatsaniswa na-$800 yemuntfu lobheja $10 ngelinani linye: kuyekela imali etafuleni kwengeta imali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe →. Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → ku-$1,460 ngu-$39; lokwenteke ngempela −$160 kungaphansi kwekuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → kunye, akumangalisi. Lobheja ngelinani linye eceleni kwetfu abenelokulindzelekile lokufanako ngelidola ngalinye nemphumela lonekugucuka lokucishe kube yincenye.

Lisu lekubheja ngelinani linye ku-roulette

Loko lokukhonjiswa yiseshini

I-Paroli yi-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → lephendvulwe phansi: ilahlekelwa liyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye tikhatsi letinyenti futsi iwine emayunithi lasikhombisa ngetikhatsi letitsite, esikhundleni sekuwina liyunithi linye tikhatsi letinyenti nekulahlekelwa lamashumi lasitfupha nakutsatfu ngetikhatsi letitsite. Kusabalala akunangoti lenkhulu ngobe inombolo lenkhulu kuwina, hhayi kulahlekelwa, futsi linani lelibhejwako alikaze lendlule $40 lapho kuphela $10 kuyimali yetfu. Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngelidola ngalinye akushintji. Luhlelo lolungcono kumdlali lofuna kugucugucukatibaloKugucugucukaSilinganiso sekutsi imiphumela isabalele kangakanani etungeleta linani lelilindzelekile. Kukhulu ku-straight up, kuncane ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali.Fundza konkhe → ngaphandle kweliwa, futsi lusabita 2.70% wemali yonkhe lebhejiwe.

Imibuto

Kungani ugcina ngemuva kwakatsatfu hhayi kane?

Kane kulandzelana kungu-5.6% futsi kukhokha $150. Inhloso yinambitsi nje; inzuzo yelikhasino iyafana kuyo yonkhe inhloso.

Ingabe imali yelikhasino iyimali yelikhasino ngempela?

Cha. Ngemuva kwekuwina kunye i-$20 lesetafuleni ngeyakho. I-Paroli iva shengatsi ayibiti ngobe kulahlekelwa imali leyekelwe etafuleni akubukeki njengekulahlekelwa yimali yakho. Kodvwa kunjalo.

Ingabe i-Paroli incono kune-Martingale?

Lokulindzelekile kuyafana, linani lelibhejwako lelikhulu kakhulu lincane, kute liwa lemkhawulo welitafula. Incono ngato tonkhe tindlela ngaphandle kwalena lebalulekile, lengashintji.

Lokuhlekisako

Lahlekelwa kancane kanyenti, uwine kakhulu kungavamile. Lokuphambene ne-Martingale, nentsengo lefanako.

Imitfombo

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Sehluko 13, i-roulette.

kubuyeketwe nga-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, licandza linyeindlela yekusebenta ↗imitfombo ↗