Inkinga: Lisondvo lelilanga lekutalwa
Kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakanani ngaphambi kwekutsi lenye inombolo iphindze? Lokumbalwa kakhulu kunaloko bantfu labanyenti lababucagelako.
Inkinga yelilanga lekutalwa esondvweni lelinemigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lengu-37: ngemuva nje kwekujikeleta lokungu-8 litfuba lekutsi lenye inombolo sesiyivele kabili lingetulu kwehafu. Badlali bafundza kuphindza njengemaphethini; kodvwa kungumkhuba lolindzelekile welisondvo lelingachemile.
Inkinga
Jikeleta lisondvo laseYurophu lelingachemile. Kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakanani kuze litfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lekutsi kujikeleta lokumbili nobe ngetulu kukhombise inombolo lefanako lidlule hafu? Badlali labanyenti bacagela endzaweni letsite eduze kwa-18 nobe 19, hafu ya-37. Imphendvulo ngu-8.
Sisombululo
Bala litfuba lekungaphindzi bese ulisusa kulokunye. Ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-k, p(tonkhe tehlukile) = (37/37)(36/37)(35/37)…((38 − k)/37). Ku-k = 8: 1 × 0.973 × 0.946 × 0.919 × 0.892 × 0.865 × 0.838 × 0.811 ≈ 0.44, ngako p(kuphindza lokutsite) ≈ 0.56. Ku-k = 14 ngu-0.93; ku-k = 20 ngu-0.996. Umcondvo uyehluleka ngobe linani lemabhangca ekujikeleta likhula njenga-k², futsi nobe nguliphi libhangca lingafana.
Kubaluleke ngani etafuleni
Libhodi lemiphumela yetinombolo letingu-20 tekugcina cishe njalo litawukhombisa kuphindza kunye nobe ngetulu, kanyenti kabili nobe katsatfu. Badlali babona “17 iphume kabili ekujikeleteni lokulishumi” bese baphetsa ngekutsi 17 iyashisa; tibalo telilanga lekutalwa titsi kuphindza ngekhatsi kwekujikeleta lokulishumi kwenteka ku-74% wetikhatsi futsi inombolo lephindzile ayihlelekile. Iphethini yangempela; inchazelo yayo akusiyo.
Inkinga lelandzelako
Kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakanani kuze inombolo letsite, asitsi 17, ivele kabili? Lowo ngumbuto lowehlukile lonemphendvulo lenkhulu kakhulu: kulindza lokulindzelekile kujikeleta lokungu-74, futsi litfuba lekutsi 17 iphume kabili ngekhatsi kwekujikeleta lokungu-20 licishe libe ngu-10%. Umehluko emkhatsini “wekutsi lenye inombolo iyaphindza” (kujikeleta lokungu-8) “nekutsi lenombolo iyaphindza” (kujikeleta lokungu-74) ngumehluko wonkhe emkhatsini wephethini loyibona ngemuva kwaloko nekubikezela lokwenta kusenesikhatsi.
Kuzame
Dlala Umdlalo wekuzama kujikeleta lokulishumi bese ubuka umlandvo. Kanyenti kutawuba nekuphindza. Uphindze uwudlale. Inombolo lephindzako itawuba yehlukile. Kwente loku kalishumi futsi utawube uyibonile inkinga yelilanga lekutalwatibaloInkinga yelilanga lekutalwaKutsi kudzingeka bantfu labangakhi kute kube nekwenteka kutsi lababili babelane ngelilanga lekutalwa, noma kujikeleta lokungakhi kute inombolo kungenteka iphindze iphume. Elisondvweni lelinemigodzi lengu-37, kujikeleta lokungu-8 kwanele kutsi litfuba libe ngetulu kwesigamu.Fundza konkhe →; kwente kayinkhulungwane (tilingisi tingakwenta) futsi utawube uyilinganisile.
Lifomula
Imibuto
Ncamashi, ngemigodzi lengu-37 esikhundleni semalanga langu-365. Bantfu labangu-23 banika 50% emalangeni ekutalwa; kujikeleta lokungu-8 kunika 56% kulisondvo.
50% ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokucishe kube ngu-19. Kusentfo lejwayelekile.
Cha. Tinkhulungwane tekujikeleta kwelisondvo linye betingakukhombisa; kuphindza kunye akukaze kukukhombise.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Libhodi lemiphumela eceleni kwelisondvo laseMelika likhombisa kujikeleta lokungu-16 kwekugcina. Kungenteka kangakanani kutsi kute inombolo levela kabili kulo?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Cishe 2.5%: cishe emabhodi langu-39 kulangu-40 akhombisa okungenani inombolo yinye lephindziwe.
Hamba ngekujikeleta ngakunye. Kujikeleta kwekucala kungaba yinoma yini. Kwesibili kufanele kuyiphutse: ematfuba langu-37 kulangu-38. Kwesitsatfu kufanele kuphutse tonkhe tombili: 36 ku-38. Kwesishumi nesitfupha kufanele kuphutse tinombolo letilishumi nesihlanu: 23 ku-38.
Phindzaphindza: 38/38 × 37/38 × 36/38 × … × 23/38 ≈ 0.0246.
Libhodi lelingenayo inombolo lephindziwe ngilo lelivela kancane. Libhodi lelinenombolo lephindziwe alisho lutfo ngelisondvo.
Ekujikeleteni lokulishumi kwelisondvo laseYurophu, litfuba lini lekutsi 17 aphume tikhatsi letisihlanu ncamashi? Lekutsi lenye inombolo, noma nguyiphi, iphume tikhatsi letisihlanu nobe ngetulu? Futsi lekutsi lenye inombolo iphume okungenani tikhatsi letintsatfu ekujikeleteni lokune?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo 17 tikhatsi letisihlanu ncamashi: 1 ku-315,576. Lenye inombolo tikhatsi letisihlanu nobe ngetulu: cishe 1 ku-8,333. Lenye inombolo tikhatsi letintsatfu nobe ngetulu ekujikeleteni lokune: 1 ku-349.
17 tikhatsi letisihlanu: khetsa kutsi ngukuphi kujikeleta lokusihlanu kulokulishumi, tindlela leti-252, ngayinye inelitfuba la-(1/37)⁵ × (36/37)⁵. Kanyekanye, 1 ku-315,576.
Lenye inombolo: ngayinye yetinombolo letingu-37 inelitfuba la-1 ku-308,325 lekushaya tikhatsi letisihlanu nobe ngetulu, lokuniketa 37 ku-308,325, nobe 1 ku-8,333. Simo lesivela kancane setinombolo letimbili letishaya tikhatsi letisihlanu ngayinye sibalwa kabili, kodvwa kusisusa akuguculi lutfo kulelizinga lekunemba.
Tikhatsi letintsatfu ekujikeleteni lokune: kunombolo yinye, 4 × 36 + 1 = 145 kulemiphumela lengu-37⁴ lengenteka; kunoma nguyiphi yetinombolo letingu-37, 145/37³ = 1 ku-349.
Elisondvweni lelinemacandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → lamabili, tinombolo letihambelanako ngu-1 ku-359,275, 1 ku-9,243 na-1 ku-368. Umehluko emkhatsini wa-“17” na-“lenye inombolo” yinkinga yelilanga lekutalwatibaloInkinga yelilanga lekutalwaKutsi kudzingeka bantfu labangakhi kute kube nekwenteka kutsi lababili babelane ngelilanga lekutalwa, noma kujikeleta lokungakhi kute inombolo kungenteka iphindze iphume. Elisondvweni lelinemigodzi lengu-37, kujikeleta lokungu-8 kwanele kutsi litfuba libe ngetulu kwesigamu.Fundza konkhe → futsi: kunetindlela letingu-37 tekumangala.
Lokuhlekisako
Lokutsite kuyaphindza masinyane. Loko lokutsite akuhlelekile.
Imitfombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, imibuto nge-roulette.