Kuphambuka lokujwayelekile ku-roulette
Kuphambuka lokujwayelekile ku-roulette, lokuyimphandze yesikwele yekugucugucukatibaloKugucugucukaSilinganiso sekutsi imiphumela isabalele kangakanani etungeleta linani lelilindzelekile. Kukhulu ku-straight up, kuncane ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali.Fundza konkhe →, libanga lelijwayelekile emkhatsini wemphumela naloko lokulindzelekile.
Ku-$1 ngamunye lobhejiwe, σ ngu-5.84 ku-straight up na-1.00 kulokubovu. Phindzaphindza ngelinani lelibhejwako nangemphandze yesikwele yelinani lekujikeleta kute utfole iseshini.
Umtsetfo lolula
Cishe tincenye letimbili kuletintsatfu tetiseshini tiphela ngekhatsi kwa-σ munye waloko lokulindzelekile, futsi 95% ngekhatsi kwemabili. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-100 kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → nga-$10 (lokulindzelekile kungu-−$27, σ = $100) tiseshini letinyenti tiphakatsi kwa-−$127 na-+$73, futsi cishe tonkhe tiphakatsi kwa-−$227 na-+$173. Umphumela longaphandle kwalelo banga awusibo bufakazi bentfo ngaphandle kwekutsi iseshini yinye kuletingemashumi lamabili iyakwenta loko.
Kungani √N
Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → kukhula ngekulingana na-N; kusabalala kukhula ngekulingana na-√N. Nangabe N mncane kusabalala kuyabusa futsi tiseshini tifana nekuphosa luhlavu lwemali lolucheme kancane. Nangabe N mkhulu kulahlekelwa kwendlula kusabalala. Liphuzu lekuwela, lapho kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile kulingana nekuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → kunye, liku-N = (σ/inzuzo yelikhasino)² = (1/0.027)² ≈ kujikeleta lokungu-1,370 ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali na-(5.84/0.027)² ≈ 46,800 ku-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe →. Ngaphansi kwalawo manani, kuncuma inhlanhla; ngetulu kwawo, kuncuma inzuzo yelikhasino.
Kukusebentisa
Kute wehlulele kutsi iseshini beyingajwayelekile yini, bala (umphumela − EV)/σ. Lobheja $10 kulokubovu locedza kujikeleta lokungu-100 nga-+$150 useku-(150 + 27)/100 = 1.77σ, umphumela munye ku-25: unenhlanhla, akusiyo intfo lemangalisako. Lobheja i-straight up locedza nga-+$150 lefanako useku-0.3σ: busuku lobujwayelekile. Umphumela lofanako ngemadola usho tintfo letehlukene ekubhejeni lokwehlukene.
Liphutsa lelijwayelekile lencenye
Tibalo letifanako tikutjela kutsi kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakanani kute ubone inzuzo yelikhasino kudatha. Liphutsa lelijwayelekile lencenye yekuwina lebonakele lingu-√(p(1 − p)/N). Kulokubovu na-N = 1,000: √(0.4865 × 0.5135 / 1000) ≈ 1.6%. Ligebe emkhatsini weluhlavu lwemali lolulungile nalokubovu lingu-1.35%, ngako ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-1,000 namanje awukhoni kutehlukanisa ngekuciniseka. Ngemuva kwalokungu-10,000 liphutsa lelijwayelekile lingu-0.5% futsi uyakhona. Ngiko futsi kutfola kuchema kwelisondvo kudzinga kujikeleta lokunyenti kangaka.
Sicwayiso ngekuchema kwekusabalala
Imiphumela ye-straight up ikhashane kakhulu nekusabalala lokujwayelekile (normal) eseshini lemfishane: tiseshini letinyenti tikulahlekelwa lokuchubekako kwa-−$10 ekujikeleteni ngakunye nekugcuma kwa-+$350 ngaletinye tikhatsi. Umtsetfo we-±1σ uchaza kusabalala kahle kodvwa simo kabi kuze kube N usemakhulwini. Ekubhejeni lokulingana nemalikubhejaKubheja lokulingana nemaliLokubovu/lokumnyama, lengalingani/lelinganako, phansi/etulu. Tinombolo letingu-18, kukhokha 1:1.Fundza konkhe → kulinganisela lokujwayelekile kuhle kusukela cishe ekujikeleteni lokungu-30.
Lifomula
Imibuto
Bufakazi bekutsi udlale cishe tiseshini letingu-40, noma bewuseseshinini leyo yinye lenenhlanhla kuletingemashumi lamane. Phindza ukwente.
Sitsintjintja kancane njalo: liphutsa lelijwayelekile lesilinganiso lingu-σ/√N. Nangabe N = 10,000 lingu-1% welinani lelibhejwako.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Ekujikeleteni lokungu-100 kwelisondvo laseYurophu, liyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → lisembili nangabe kunekuwina lokungenani lokungu-51, kantsi liyunithi linye ku-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe → lisembili nangabe inombolo yalo ingena lokungenani tikhatsi letingu-3. Sebentisa lijika lensimbi kulinganisela onkhe ematfuba lamabili, bese uwacatsanisa netimphendvulo leticondzile.
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Lokubovu: lijika lensimbi linika 35.6% kantsi imphendvulo lecondzile ngu-35.5%. I-straight up: lijika lensimbi linika 55.0% kantsi imphendvulo lecondzile ngu-50.9%. Lendlela lemfisha iyasebenta kulokubovu kodvwa iyaphutsa enombolweni yinye.
Lokubovu: kuwina kunesilinganiso la-100 × 18/37 = 48.6, nekusabalala lokungu-√(100 × 18/37 × 19/37) = 5.0. Kuba sembili kusho 51 nobe ngetulu; liphuzu lelisemkhatsini, 50.5, lingetulu kwesilinganiso ngekusabalala lokungu-0.37, futsi lijika lensimbi libeka 35.6% ngetulu kwaloko. Kuhlanganisa ematfuba lacondzile ekuwina lokungu-51, 52 … 100 kunika 35.5%.
I-straight up: kungena kunesilinganiso la-100/37 = 2.70, nekusabalala lokungu-√(100 × 1/37 × 36/37) = 1.62. Kungena lokutsatfu nobe ngetulu kusho ngetulu kwa-2.5, lokungaphansi kwesilinganiso ngekusabalala lokungu-0.12: 55.0% ngelijika lensimbi. Ngalokucondzile, ngu-1 kususa ematfuba ekungena lokungu-0, 1 na-2, 6.5% + 17.9% + 24.7%, lokushiya 50.9%.
Lijika lensimbi lidzinga imiphumela leminyenti ngetinhlangotsi tombili tesilinganiso. Lokubovu kunayo ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100; inombolo lengena kancane kunalokutsatfu ngesilinganiso ayinayo. Lijika linika ngisho 8.7% ku-“kute kungena”, lapho litfuba leliciniso lingu-6.5%. Taylor (2021) ubeka i-binomial nelijika lensimbi eceleni ngendlela lefanako.
Lokuhlekisako
Iseshini yinye kuletingemashumi lamabili ingaphandle kwema-sigma lamabili. Kuhlala kukhona lotsite losemsileni.
Imitfombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.