Lisu · Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa · 9 min

Lisu le-Martingale ku-roulette

Lisu le-Martingale ku-roulette liphindza kabili kubheja ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye bese libuyela kulinani lelisisekelo ngemuva kwekuwina. Kuwina ngakunye kubuyisa konkhe kulahlekelwa lokwendlulile kuhlanganise neliyunithi lelisisekelo linye. Lelikhasi lelingentasi likhombisa kutsi loko kwentani emalini yekubheja, nekutsi kungani kungeke kukushintje kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile.

Imphendvulo lemfishaAluhluli lisondvo. Njengelisu lekuphindza kabili ku-roulette, i-Martingale ikhicita kuwina lokuncane lokunyenti nekulahlekelwa lokukhulu ngalesinye sikhatsi. Kunoma ngukuphi kujikeleta, kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile kusesekungu-2.70% wemali yonkhe lebhejiwe, futsi ngobe kwenyuswa kwelinani kubheja kakhulu, kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngeseshini kukhulu kunekubheja ngelinani linye, akukancane.

Luhlelo lwe-Martingale ku-roulette lusebenta njani?

Lahlekelwa, bese uphindza kabili. Wina, bese ubuyela kulinani lelisisekelo. Lolo luhlelo lonkhe. Ngelinani lelisisekelo le-$10 nemkhawulo welitafula we-$500, kulandzelana kuphela ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kasitfupha. Likholamu lekugcina litfuba lekufinyelela kulesinyatselo ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali, lapho kulahlekelwa ngakunye kunelitfuba lelingu-19/37.

kulahlekelwa #kubheja lokulandzelakokonkhe lokusengotinip(kufinyelela)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Kubheja lokusisekelo $10, umkhawulo welitafula $500. Ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kasitfupha kubheja lokulandzelako ngu-$640, ngetulu kwemkhawulo: kwenyuswa kwelinani kwephuka sekulahleke $630. Litfuba lekulahlekelwa kasitfupha kulandzelana kulokubovu lingu-(19/37)^6 = 1.83%, cishe kanye kuyo yonkhe imizamo lengu-55.

Hamba neluhlelo

Kulahlekelwa kuphindzaphindza kabili linani lelibhejwako. Kuwina kubuyela ekucaleni.

lelibhejwako lelilandzelako1umphumela kute kube nyalo0kujikeleta0

Emanani labhejwako nemiphumela akumayunithi ekubheja lokusisekelo.

Iseshini ibukeka njani?

Tinyatselo letincane kuya etulu, bese kuba nemgodzi lowehlela phansi. Ku-Martingale ye-roulette, kuphindvwa kabili ngakunye lokuphelile kwengeta kubheja lokusisekelo kunye, ngako umugca ukhuphuka kancane kancane. Kulandzelana lokushayisa umkhawulo we-$500 kubuyisela emuva $630 ngesikhatsi sinye: tinyatselo letingu-63 kuleto.

Tiseshini te-Martingale letilishumi, lisisekelo le-$10, umkhawulo we-$500umphumela ngekucatsaniswa nesicalo

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · lokunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, lokuluhlata lwesibhakabhaka lolukhanyako phakatsi, emasampula langu-83 lafiphele · hambisa etulu kweshadi kute ubone ema-quantile ekujikeleteni

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
phakatsi −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · i-y-axis incunyelwe ku-percentile ye-1–99 (lokwecile −$1,000 kuya ku-+$2,640) · kujikeleta lokungu-500 · sisekelo $10 · lokulingana nemali

Umugca ngamunye uyiseshini yinye yekubheja lokulingana nemali kusuka emalini yekubheja ye-$1,000. Kukhuphuka lokudze, kwehla ngekushesha.

Tinyatselo letincane kuya etulu, bese kuba nemgodzi lowehlela phansi lotibuyisela tonkhe ngesikhatsi sinye.

Silingisi

Kulungiselela ngakunye kusebentisa tiseshini letingu-2,000 tekubheja lokulingana nemali kusuka emalini yekubheja ye-$1,000. Imiphumela iyashintja khona nyalo.

Kubheja lokusisekelo

Umkhawulo welitafula

Kujikeleta ngeseshini

Imiphumela yetiseshini · tiseshini letingu-2,000 · kujikeleta lokungu-100 · sisekelo $10 · umkhawulo $500kulahlekelwa ← | → inzuzo

−$1,000$0+$650

beka ligundvwane etulu kwebha · emabha labovu atiseshini letilahlekelwe, laluhlata letinenzuzo, libha lelikhanyako lihlanganisa $0

tiseshini letinenzuzo

40.8%

umphumela lophakatsi

−$130

umphumela wesilinganiso

−$66.44

kwenyuswa kwelinani kwehlulekile

59.3% wetiseshini

i-percentile ye-5

−$1,000

kwehla kwemali lokukhulu lokuphakatsi

−$650

Tiseshini letinyenti tiphela tisembili kancane (40.8%), futsi yiloko lokuheha bantfu. Silinganiso singaphansi kwelicandza (−$66.44) ngobe tiseshini letilahlekelwe tinkhulu: kwenyuswa kwelinani kufike emkhawulweni welitafula ku-59.3% wetiseshini. Lobheja ngelinani linye le-$10 ekujikeleteni lokufanako ulindzele kulahlekelwa cishe ngu-$27.

Luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa luta kangakhi

Elisondvweni lelinelicandza linye, kubheja lokulingana nemali kulahlekelwa kujikeleta lokungu-19 kulokungu-37. Umugca ngamunye ulitfuba lekutsi kujikeleta lokulandzelanako kulahlekelwe konkhe, nekutsi umdlali we-Martingale, lophindzaphindza kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye, sewulahlekelwe malini ngaleso sikhatsi.

Kubheja lokusisekelo

kulahlekelwa kulandzelana	litfuba	cishe 1 kwa-	lokulahlekile kute kube nyalo	kubheja lokulandzelako
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Litfuba ngu-19/37 lophindzaphindzwe ngalo kanye ngekulahlekelwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikeleteni lokutsite kunye. Iseshini lendze inekujikeleta lokunyenti lapho luchungechunge lolunjalo lungacala khona, ngako ebusuku bonkhe kungenteka kakhulu kunaloko lokukhonjiswa ngumugca munye.

Luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa kalishumi nesihlanu lwenteka cishe kanye emizamweni lengu-22,000. Loko kuvakala kuphephile. Akunjalo, ngetizatfu letimbili. Kujikeleta ngakunye kucala umzamo lomusha, futsi kusihlwa kunekujikeleta lokulikhulu. Futsi kute lofika kulishumi nesihlanu: kusuka kulinani lelisisekelo le-$10, umkhawulo we-$500 uphelisa kuphindvwa kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kasitfupha, lokwenteka cishe kanye emizamweni lengu-55.

Kungani lungeke luwashintje ematfuba?

Linani lelilindzelekile liyahlanganiswa. Nangabe kubheja ngakunye kunelinani lelilindzelekile le-−2.70% lelinani lelibhejwako, kulandzelana kwanoma ngukuphi kubheja, nobe emanani akhetfwa kanjani, kunelinani lelilindzelekile le-−2.70% lemali yonkhe lebhejiwe. Kukhetsa linani lelibhejwako kungancika emiphumeleni lendlulile; angeke kuncike kulolandzelako.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ ikhetfwa ngembi kwekujikeleta i; Xᵢ = ±1 itimele ku-bᵢ

Imibono lengasilo liciniso levamile

“Kudzingeka uwine kanye kuphela kute ubuyise konkhe.”

Kuliciniso ekwenyusweni kwelinani lokuphelako. Kwenyuswa kwelinani lokungapheli, ngenca yemkhawulo welitafula noma yemali yakho yekubheja, kulahlekelwa kulandzelana konkhe, futsi lokulandzelana kukhulu ngenhloso.

“Ngemali yekubheja lenkhulu ngalokwanele angeke luhluleke.”

Umkhawulo welitafula umisa kuphindvwa kabili kusesekudze ngembi kwekutsi imali yekubheja leningi iphele. Ngaphandle kwemkhawulo, imali yekubheja ledzingekako ikhula ngekushesha lokukhulu kakhulu kantsi inzuzo ngemjikeleto weluhlelo ihlala iliyunithi lelisisekelo linye.

“Kulahlekelwa kasitfupha kulandzelana cishe akwenteki.”

Kulokubovu kwenteka ku-1.83% wetikhatsi tekujikeleta kasitfupha. Eseshinini yekujikeleta lokungu-200 ngalokuvamile utawubona luchungechunge lwalokusitfupha kanye noma ngetulu.

Lokuhlekisako

Kuwina lokuncane lokunyenti, kulahlekelwa lokukhulu lokuyivelakancane. Futsi siceliso uyasikhokha wena.

Sigcino setibaloLuhlelo lwe-Martingale ku-roulette lushintjanisa litfuba lelikhulu lekuwina lokuncane ngelitfuba lelincane lekulahlekelwa lokukhulu. Kungumshwalensi lotsengiswa ngalokuphambene: wena utsatsa liphrimiyamu lelincane ngetinyenti tebusuku bese ukhokha wena siceliso lesikhulu lesiyivelakancane. Lukhuphula imali lebhejwako ngeseshini, ngako lukhuphula kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngeseshini. Alunciphisi futsi angeke lunciphise inzuzo yelikhasino. Nangabe uyalisebentisa nobe kunjalo lisu le-Martingale ku-roulette, yati liphuzu lakho lekwephuka kusenesikhatsi: ngelinani lelisisekelo le-$10 nemkhawulo we-$500, loko kulahlekelwa kasitfupha kulandzelana, sehlakalo se-1.8% kuwo wonkhe umzamo. Buka Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kanye Umkhawulo wekulahlekelwa / umkhawulo wekuwina.