Tibalo · Umcondvo lomcoka · 7 min

Linani lelilindzelekile ku-roulette

Linani lelilindzelekile ku-roulette ngumphumela wesilinganiso wekubheja nangabe bewungakuphindza kuze kube phakadze. Ku-roulette yaseYurophu liyafana kukho konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile: ulahlekelwa ngu-1/37 welinani ngalinye lelibhejwako, ngesilinganiso, ngekujikeleta.

Ngemavi lalula

Cabanga ubeka kubheja lokufanako kwe-$10 kulokubovu tikhatsi letisigidzi. Kujikeleta lokunye kuwina $10, lokunye kulahlekelwa $10. Hlanganisa yonkhe imiphumela bese uhlukanisa ngesigidzi: utfola cishe −$0.27. Leyo nombolo linani lelilindzelekile lekubheja ku-roulette. Akusiko loko lokwenteka kunoma ngukuphi kujikeleta kunye; silinganiso sesikhatsi lesidze ngekujikeleta.

Imphendvulo lemfishaEV = litfuba lekuwina × imali lewiniwe − litfuba lekulahlekelwa × imali lelahlekile. Kukho konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile ku-roulette loko kuba ngu-−2.70% welinani lelibhejwako.

Ifomula ye-EV yekubheja ku-roulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = tinombolo letihlanganisiwe · S = linani lelibhejwako

Faka umtsetfo wenkhokhelo ye-roulette, 36/n − 1, bese n iyacisheka. Leyo yindzaba yonkhe yenzuzo yelikhasino emugceni munye:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

Kuzame: ikhaliketha yelinani lelilindzelekile ku-roulette

Khetsa kutsi kubheja kuhlanganisa tinombolo letingakhi. Litfuba nenkhokhelo kuyashintja; linani lelilindzelekile alishintji.

inombolo 1 lembozwako · inkhokhelo 35:1linani lelibhejwako $10

kulahlekelwa 97.3%

p(kuwina)1/37 = 2.70%

kuwina kukhokha+$350

kulahlekelwa kubita−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10

linani lelilindzelekile−$0.27 ngekujikeleta · −2.70%

Kubukeka kanjani ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi

Umphumela wesilinganiso ngekujikeleta kwekubheja kwe-$10 kulokubovu, njengobe kujikeleta kwandza. Ekucaleni, inhlanhla iyabusa; silinganiso lesichubekako sitinta ku-−$0.27 njengobe sampula ikhula. Lokhu kuhlangana ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lokwetsenjwa likhasino.

Kujikeleta ngemuva kwekujikeleta, silinganiso lesichubekako siyekela kugucugucuka sitinte ngaphansi nje kwa-zero.

Imibono lengasilo liciniso levamile

“I-EV lephansi kwa-zero isho kutsi ngitawulahlekelwa kuyo yonkhe iseshini.”

Cha. Isho kutsi silinganiso setiseshini letinyenti kulahlekelwa. Tiseshini ngatinye tehluka kakhulu, ikakhulukati kubheja lokunekugucugucuka lokukhulu njenge-straight up.

“Likhasino lidzinga sikhatsi lesidze kute liwine.”

Inzuzo yelikhasino isebenta kukho konkhe kujikeleta; loko lokwentiwa sikhatsi lesidze kwenta umphumela ubikezeleke. Eseshinini yinye, inhlanhla ingumandla lamakhulu.

“Kunekubheja lokune-EV lencono kunalokunye.”

Akunjalo ku-roulette yaseYurophu, ngaphandle kwalokukodvwa: ngaphansi kwe-la partage noma i-en prison, kubheja lokulingana nemali kunencenye yenzuzo yelikhasino lejwayelekile.

Lokuhlekisako

$Akusiko loko lokwenteka ekujikeleteni kunye. Silinganiso sakho konkhe.$

Akusiko loko lokwenteka ekujikeleteni kunye. Silinganiso sakho konkhe.