Lisu le-D'Alembert ku-roulette
Lisu le-D’Alembert ku-roulette lengeta liyunithi linye ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa futsi lisusa linye ngemuva kwekuwina.
Alilehluli lisondvo. Kwenyuswa kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → lokujwayelekile lokuhamba kancane kakhulu: emanani labhejwako enyuka kancane kancane, kwehla kwemali kulinganiselwe, futsi inzuzo yelikhasino ayitsintfwa.
Hamba neluhlelo
Kulahlekelwa kwenyusa sinyatselo sinye. Kuwina kubuyisela emuva sinyatselo sinye.
Emanani labhejwako nemiphumela akumayunithi ekubheja lokusisekelo.
Luhlelo lwe-D’Alembert ku-roulette, sinyatselo ngesinyatselo
Bheja liyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye. Nawulahlekelwa, kubheja lokulandzelako kukhulu ngeliyunithi linye. Nawuwina, kuncane ngeliyunithi linye, kodvwa kungaphansi kwalinye nanini. Ngiko konkhe. Cabanga ngemshwibo wekudlala: kulahlekelwa ngakunye kwenyusa linani lelibhejwako kancane futsi kuwina ngakunye kulibuyisela phansi. Inkholelo lengentasi ngukutsi kuwina nekulahlekelwa kutawulingana, ngako linani lelibhejwako litawubuyela ekhaya elisisekelweni. Kukhanga kwalo ngukutsi lipheya ngalinye lekuwina kunye nekulahlekelwa kunye emananini labhejwako lalandzelanako liniketa +1 liyunithi lelihlantekile: lahlekelwa la-3, wina la-4, lohlantekile +1.
Iseshini ibukeka injani?
Imnene, ngelinani lelibhejwako lelinyuka kancane. Njengoba kulahlekelwa kwendlula kuwina nga-19 ku-18 ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali, linani lelibhejwako liyenyuka kancane eseshinini lendze. Ngobe linani lelibhejwako likhulu kakhulu nawube ulahlekelwa, futsi lincane nawuwina, linani lelibhejwako ngesilinganiso ngetikhatsi tekulahlekelwa lendlula silinganiso ngetikhatsi tekuwina. Tiseshini tihamba kahle kune-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe →, nekwehla kwemaliimaliKwehla kwemaliKwehla kusuka eticongweni temali yekubheja kuya ezingeni lelisephansi lelilandzelako ngekhatsi kweseshini. Kwehla lokukhulu kakhulu kwemali ngulokukhulu kunako konkhe lokwehla lokunjalo.Fundza konkhe → lokulinganiselwe futsi kute liwa, futsi tilahlekelwa kancane kakhulu kunekubheja ngelinani linyelisuKubheja ngelinani linyeKubheja linani lelifanako kuko konkhe kujikeleta. Lizinga lesisekelo lekucatsaniswa nalo konkhe kwenyuswa kwelinani.Fundza konkhe → ngesilinganiso ngobe linani lelibhejwako ngesilinganiso likhulu.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- phakatsi −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Ingabe luhlelo lwe-D’Alembert luyasebenta?
Cha. Iseshini lelinganako iyawina, futsi tiseshini atihlali tilingana. Ngemuva kwekuwina lokungu-w nekulahlekelwa lokungu-l emananini labhejwako lalandzelanako, umphumela lohlantekile ngu-w − l emayunithi kwengetwe kulungiswa ngekwalapho bewukhona khona etitebhisini. Nangabe w = l umphumela ngu-+w emayunithi ncamashi, lokubukeka njengenzuzo leciniselekile. Inkinga ngukutsi w = l akusiso simo lesilindzelekile: ekujikeleteni lokungu-37 ulindzela kuwina lokungu-18 nekulahlekelwa lokungu-19. Kulahlekelwa kunye lokwengetiwe elinanini lelibhejwako lesele lenyukele, asitsi, emayunithini la-8 kubita lokunyenti kunemapheya la-+1 lasiphohlongo. Lokulindzelekile kuphuma ku-−1/37 wemali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe →, njengoba kufanele.
Kungani tiseshini letimfisha tivamise kuwina?
Simo lesilinganako siyincenye yemtsetfo munye lomboza yonkhe iseshini. Bita D linani lekulahlekelwa kususwe linani lekuwina. Iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-N lecala ngeliyunithi linye iphela nga-(N − D²)/2 − D emayunithi, inqobo nje nangabe kute kubheja kweliyunithi linye lokuwinako (ngemuva kwekuwina lokunjalo linani lelibhejwako alinalapho lingehlela khona). Nange-D = 0 loko ngu-+N/2, li-+w lesigaba lesingenhla. Kulahlekelwa ngakunye lokwengetiwe kubalwa kuphindzaphindzwe ngako: ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100, D lengu-4 isashiya +38 emayunithi, D lengu-8 ishiya +10, futsi D lengu-10 ishiya −10. Inhlanhla yodvwa isabalalisa D cishe nga-√N, lishumi ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100, futsi emdlalweni longenalo licandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → inzuzo yetiseshini letinyenti letilinganako nekulahlekelwa kwaletimbalwa letingalingani kuyacimana ncamashi. Licandza lengeta kulahlekelwa kunye lokwengetiwe ekujikeleteni ngakunye lokungu-37 ngesilinganiso, futsi ngobe D iphindzaphindzwa ngayo intsengo yayo ikhula ngekushesha kuneseshini. Tiseshini letinyenti tekujikeleta kufika ku-100 ticedza usembili; silinganiso asikwenti loko nanini, futsi ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokumakhulu lambalwa tiseshini letinyenti tiyalahlekelwa nato.
Kutsiwani nawuliphendvula?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, leyatiwa nangekutsi yi-D’Alembert leliphambene, yengeta liyunithi ngemuva kwekuwina futsi isuse linye ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa. Ilingisa lelekucala ncamashi ngekuphambene. Inqobo nje nangabe kute kubheja kweliyunithi linye lokulahlekelwako, iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-N iphela nga-(D² − N)/2 + D emayunithi, lapho D nyalo kuyikuwina kususwe kulahlekelwa. Iseshini lelinganako ilahlekelwa ngesigamu seliyunithi ngekujikeleta, futsi kuphela luchungechunge lwekuwina lolwendlula kulahlekelwa kakhulu lolwenta inzuzo. Ngako tiseshini letinyenti tilahlekelwa kancane futsi letimbalwa tiwina kakhulu, lokuphambene nesimo saleyekucala, futsi silinganiso ngiku-2.70% lokufanako kwemali lebhejiwe.
Bekangubani d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, sati setibalo nemhleli-kanye we-Encyclopédie, waphikisa endzabeni yanga-1754 kutsi ngemuva kweluchungechunge lwetinhloko, imsila iba nelitfuba lelikhulu. Bekanephutsa, futsi liphutsa leletsetse ligama lakhe luhlobo lweliphutsa lemgembuli. Luhlelo lwe-D’Alembert ku-roulette laniwa ligama lakhe kamuva, ngubagembuli lebebanalenkholelo. Akaluklamanga futsi mhlawumbe bekangeke aluvume.
Ingabe kukhona letinye tinhlobo?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, lengenhla, itiphatsa njenge-ParolilisuParoliKwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina: phindza kabili ngemuva kwekuwina, buyela ekucaleni ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa noma ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu kulandzelana. Kuphindze kutsiwe: i-Martingale lephambene.Fundza konkhe → lemnene. Labanye badlali bengeta emayunithi lamabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa futsi basuse linye ngemuva kwekuwina, loku lokwenta titebhisi tikhuphuke kakhulu ngasendzaweni ye-Martingale. Tonkhe tinhlobo tinako kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → lokufanako ngeliyunithi ngalinye lelibhejiwe.
Silingisi · D'Alembert
Tiseshini letingu-2,000 tekubheja lokulingana nemali, kucalwa ngemali yekubheja leyi-$1,000.
Kubheja lokusisekelo $10 · umkhawulo welitafula $500 · kujikeleta lokungu-100 ngeseshini
Luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa luta kangakhi
Elisondvweni lelinelicandza linye, kubheja lokulingana nemali kulahlekelwa kujikeleta lokungu-19 kulokungu-37. Umugca ngamunye ulitfuba lekutsi kujikeleta lokulandzelanako kulahlekelwe konkhe, nekutsi umdlali we-D’Alembert, lowengeta kubheja kunye lokusisekelo ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye, sewulahlekelwe malini ngaleso sikhatsi.
| kulahlekelwa kulandzelana | litfuba | cishe 1 kwa- | lokulahlekile kute kube nyalo | kubheja lokulandzelako |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Litfuba ngu-19/37 lophindzaphindzwe ngalo kanye ngekulahlekelwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikeleteni lokutsite kunye. Iseshini lendze inekujikeleta lokunyenti lapho luchungechunge lolunjalo lungacala khona, ngako ebusuku bonkhe kungenteka kakhulu kunaloko lokukhonjiswa ngumugca munye.
Imibuto
Ayinalo liwa, loku lokuyenta ibe kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa lokumnene kakhulu. Ayishibhi kunekubheja ngelinani linye; ibita kancane kakhulu.
Kuphela umkhawulo welitafulalitafulaUmkhawulo welitafulaLinani lelincane nalelikhulu kakhulu lekubheja lelivunyelwe. Umkhawulo lophakeme ngiwo lomisa kwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kabili.Fundza konkhe → noma imali yakho yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe →. Eseshinini lendze yekulahlekelwa lenyuka ngalokungapheli.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Udlala luhlelo lwe-D’Alembert kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → kujikeleta lokungu-50, ucala ngeliyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye, futsi akukaze uwine kubheja kweliyunithi linye (ngemuva kwekuwina lokunjalo linani lelibhejwako belingeke lehle kunalapho). Uphetsa ngekulahlekelwa lokungu-27 nekuwina lokungu-23. Usetulu nobe usephansi ngemayunithi lamangakhi? Kantsi ngekulahlekelwa lokungu-29 nekuwina lokungu-21?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo +13 emayunithi ngekulahlekelwa lokungu-27, −15 emayunithi ngalokungu-29. Kujikeleta lokubili kulamashumi lasihlanu lokuya ngalenye indlela kubita emayunithi langu-28.
Bita D kulahlekelwa kususa kuwina. Umphumela ngu-(N − D²)/2 − D ekujikeleteni lokungu-N. Ngekulahlekelwa lokungu-27 nekuwina lokungu-23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Nga-29 na-21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Kungani umtsetfo usebenta: linani lelibhejwako lihlala liliyunithi linye kanye nekulahlekelwa kuze kube nyalo kususa kuwina kuze kube nyalo. Kulahlekelwa ngakunye lokucishwa kuwina lokulandzelako kwenta libhangcwa, lahlekelwa s bese uwina s + 1, lokunika +1 liyunithi, njengoba litafula lelingenhla likhombisa. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-N, kwakheka emabhangcwa langu-(N − D)/2 lanjalo, lanelinani le-+(N − D)/2. Kulahlekelwa lokungu-D lokusele kwabekwa ngemanani 1, 2 … D ekukhuphukeni futsi akuzange kucishwe; kubita 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Kanyekanye: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Sikwele siyindzaba yonkhe. Iseshini lelinganako ikhokha ingcenye yeliyunithi ngekujikeleta, futsi sinyatselo ngasinye lesisuka ekulinganeni sibita kakhulu kunalesandvulela.
Udlala luhlelo lwe-D’Alembert lolubuyela emuva kulokubovu kujikeleta lokungu-100, ucala ngeliyunithi linye, futsi kute kubheja kweliyunithi linye lokuke kulahlekelwe. Uphetsa ngekuwina lokungu-52 nekulahlekelwa lokungu-48. Umi kuphi? Kantsi ngekuwina lokungu-60 nekulahlekelwa lokungu-40?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo −38 emayunithi ngekuwina lokungu-52, +170 ngalokungu-60. Kuhola lokuncane ekuwineni kusalahlekelwa; lokukhulu kuphela lokukhokhako.
Bita D kuwina kususa kulahlekelwa. Umphumela ngu-(D² − N)/2 + D ekujikeleteni lokungu-N.
Kuwina lokungu-52 nekulahlekelwa lokungu-48: D = 4, ngako (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Kuwina lokungu-60 nekulahlekelwa lokungu-40: D = 20, ngako (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Kungani: kuwina ngakunye lokucishwa kulahlekelwa lokulandzelako kwenta libhangcwa, uwina ku-s bese ulahlekelwa ku-s + 1, lokunika −1. Kuwina lokungu-D lokusele kwabekwa ngemanani 1, 2 … D ekukhuphukeni futsi akukaze kucishwe; kuletsa D(D + 1)/2. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-N, kwakheka emabhangcwa langu-(N − D)/2, ngako sewonkhe ngu-D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Ngumtsetfo we-D’Alembert wekucala lophendvulwe timphawu: lapho, kulingana kuwina ingcenye yeliyunithi ngekujikeleta kantsi kungalingani kuyajeziswa; lapha, kulingana kubita ingcenye yeliyunithi ngekujikeleta kantsi kungalingani kuyaklonyeliswa.
Lokuhlekisako
Laniwa ligama lesati setibalo lesenta liphutsa ngenhlamvu yemali.
Imitfombo
- RouletteDoc. Kuchazwa kwelisu netibonelo.
- Roulette77. Kuchazwa kwelisu netibonelo.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.