Emasu ekubheja ku-roulette · Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina · emaminithi 8

Lisu le-Paroli ku-roulette (i-Martingale lephambene)

Lisu le-Paroli ku-roulette liphindza kabili ngemuva kwekuwina futsi libuyela ekucaleni ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa noma ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu kulandzelana.

Imphendvulo lemfisha

Alilehluli lisondvo; lishintja kuphela indlela kulahlekelwa lokufika ngayo. I-Paroli ifaka engotini kubheja kunye lokusisekelo kwemali yakho ngemjikeleto weluhlelo, bese ibheja kabusha imali leyiwinile kulokusele. Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → akushintji.

inhloso

kuwina ka-3 · emayunithi la-7

p(kuwina ka-3)

11.5%

inzuzo yelikhasino

2.70%

lokungalahleka kakhulu

liyunithi la-1 lemali yakho

Hamba neluhlelo

Kuwina kuya esinyatselweni lesilandzelako. Kulahlekelwa, nobe kuwina kwesitsatfu, kubuyela ekucaleni.

lelibhejwako lelilandzelako1umphumela kute kube nyalo0kujikeleta0

Emanani labhejwako nemiphumela akumayunithi ekubheja lokusisekelo.

Luhlelo lwe-Paroli ku-roulette lusebenta kanjani?

Bheja liyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye. Nawuwina, shiya konkhe etafuleni: kubheja lokulandzelako kungemayunithi lamabili. Nawuphindza uwina, kungemane. Nawuwina kwesitsatfu, tsatsa inzuzo yemayunithi lasikhombisa bese ubuyela kulinye. Nawulahlekelwa nobe nini, nawe ubuyela kulinye. Ngiko konkhe loluhlelo. Ngemuva kwekuwina kwekucala ubheja imali leyiwinile, ngako lokukhulu imali yakho yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe → lengakulahlekelwa kunobe nguwuphi umjikeleto weluhlelo liyunithi linye. Kuwina katsatfu kulandzelana ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali kwenteka ngelitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lelingu-(18/37)³ = 11.5%, cishe umjikeleto munye kuleyisita.

sinyatselolinani lelibhejwako (emayunithi)imali yakho lesengotinilohlantekile nangabe loku kubheja kulahlekelwalohlantekile nangabe loku kubheja kuwina

111−1+1, iya esinyatselweni 2

221−1+3, iya esinyatselweni 3

341−1+7, umjikeleto uphelile

litfuba lekufikasinyatselo 2: 48.6% · sinyatselo 3: 23.7% · kuphela: 11.5%

Nobe kwentekani, umjikeleto ubita lokukhulu liyunithi linye lemali yakho. Imijikeleto leminyenti ibita lokunjalo ncamashi.

Iseshini ibukeka injani?

Kuvuza kancane lokunekugcuma ngalesinye sikhatsi. Cabanga ngekutsenga lithikithi lelincane lelifanako kaninyenti: ngalinye libita liyunithi linye, lamanyenti alize, futsi cishe linye kulayisita likhokha lasikhombisa. Litfuba lekucedza iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-100 ngenzuzo lincane (cishe ku-30%) ngobe tiseshini letinyenti atinayo imijikeleto leyeneleko lephelile kute ivale kulahlekelwa kweliyunithi linye lokungapheli; nangabe iseshini icedza usembili, ivamise kucedza usembili kakhulu.

Tiseshini letilishumi te-Paroli, $10 lisisekeloumphumela ngekucatsaniswa nesicalo

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · lokunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, lokuluhlata lwesibhakabhaka lolukhanyako phakatsi, emasampula langu-82 lafiphele · hambisa etulu kweshadi kute ubone ema-quantile ekujikeleteni

p10 −$500
p25 −$500
phakatsi −$300
p75 +$30
p90 +$320

tiseshini letingu-1,000 × kujikeleta lokungu-500 · i-y-axis incunyelwe ku-percentile ye-1–99 (lokwecile −$500 kuya ku-+$1,150) · kujikeleta lokungu-500 · sisekelo $10 · lokulingana nemali

Titebhisi letehlako, ngalesinye sikhatsi sinyatselo sinyuka. Kute emaliwa.

Njengelithikithi lelincane lelitsengwa kaninyenti: lamanyenti alize, futsi cishe linye kulayisita likhokha lasikhombisa.

Ingabe luhlelo lwe-Paroli luyasebenta?

Cha. Lushintja simo sekulahlekelwa, hhayi bukhulu bako. Asitsi p = 18/37. Uwina 7 ngelitfuba p³ = 0.115; ulahlekelwa 1 ngelitfuba 1 − p³ = 0.885. Umphumela lolindzelekile ngemjikeleto weluhlelo: 7(0.115) − 1(0.885) = 0.805 − 0.885 = −0.08 emayunithi. Emayunithi lalindzelekile labhejwako ngemjikeleto weluhlelo: 1 + 2p + 4p² = 1 + 0.973 + 0.947 = 2.92. Hlukanisa: −0.08 / 2.92 = −2.7%. Luhlelo ngalunye lukunika lenombolo nawenta kuhlukanisa.

Umcabango lohehako ngukutsi emathokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe → labhejwa kabusha ayimali yelikhasino, ngako kuwabheja akubiti lutfo. Ngakho kusukela ngesikhatsi akhokhwa ngaso, futsi ngalinye lelibuyiselwa etafuleni litsatsa ku-2.70% lokufanako.

Kutsiwani nawulindzela kuwina kane kulandzelana?

I-ParolilisuParoliKwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina: phindza kabili ngemuva kwekuwina, buyela ekucaleni ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa noma ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu kulandzelana. Kuphindze kutsiwe: i-Martingale lephambene.Fundza konkhe → kufika ekuwineni kane iguculela liyunithi linye libe ngu-16, inzuzo ye-15, ngelitfuba (18/37)⁴ = 5.6%. Taylor (2021) ubuta umbuto locijile: nangabe unemali yekubheja yemayunithi lambalwa, ngabe ngumaphi ematfuba ekutfola luchungechunge lolunje lunye ngaphambi kwekutsi imali iphele? Umjikeleto ngamunye lowehlulekile ubita liyunithi linye ncamashi, ngako nanemayunithi la-15 imphendvulo ngu-1 − (1 − 0.056)¹⁵ = 58%, lokuncono kunaku-48.6% wekubeka onkhe la-15 kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → kanye. Inkinga ivela kuletinye tinombolo. Luchungechunge luvamise kufika ngemuva kwemijikeleto leminyenti lehlulekile, ngako inzuzo nayifika ngesilinganiso ingemayunithi la-9, hhayi la-15, futsi ngobe kwenyuswa kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → kubheja lokunyenti kukonkhe, umphumela wako ngesilinganiso mubi kunewekubheja kunye.

imali yekubheja, emayunithilitfuba leluchungechunge lwekuwina kane ngaphambi kwekutsi ipheleumphumela lohlantekile ngesilinganiso nawufikaumphumela ngesilinganiso

315.9%+14.0−0.29

836.9%+11.8−0.68

1557.9%+9.1−1.07

3082.3%+4.6−1.52

Lokubovu esondvweni lelinelicandza linye, lisisekelo leliyunithi linye, kuma eluchungechungeni lwekucala lwekuwina kane noma nangabe imali yekubheja iphelile. Kute ucatsanise, kubheja kunye kwemayunithi la-15 kulokubovu kuwina la-15 ngelitfuba le-48.6%, futsi umphumela wako ngesilinganiso ngu-−0.41 emayunithi.

Ingabe kubalulekile kutsi umaphi?

Esimeni kuphela. I-Paroli kufika ekuwineni kabili (tsatsa la-3) noma kane (tsatsa la-15) ishintja litfuba lekushaya nemvuzo, hhayi inzuzo yelikhasino. I-“Parlay” ekubhejeni kwe-straight up (kubheja enombolweni yinye) (shiya kuwina kwa-35 ku-1 kuchubeke) kungumcabango lofanako lone-p = 1/37 nenkhokheloimaliInkhokheloLoko lokubuyiswa kubheja lokuwinile, lokushiwo ngekutsi “X ku-1” ngetulu kwelinani lelibhejiwe lelibuyiswako.Fundza konkhe → ye-1,295 ku-1 ekushayeni kabili kulandzelana, yingako ikakhulu iyindzaba nje hhayi lokwentiwako.

Ngubani lolikhetsako, futsi ngobe yini?

Badlali labafuna kulahlekelwa lokukhulu lokwatiwako futsi lokuncane ngemjikeleto weluhlelo futsi labajabulela kulahlekelwa kancane kute babe nelitfuba lekuwina lokukhulu. Siboniso sengcondvo lesiphambene ne-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe →: i-Martingale ikwenta utive ungumuwini kuze kufike lobusuku longasiye ngabo; i-Paroli ikwenta utive ungumlahlekelwa kuze kufike lobusuku longasiye ngabo. Likhasino litsatsa ku-2.70% kwemali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe → nobe ngayiphi indlela.

Silingisi · Paroli

Tiseshini letingu-2,000 tekubheja lokulingana nemali, kucalwa ngemali yekubheja leyi-$1,000.

Kubheja lokusisekelo $10 · umkhawulo welitafula $500 · kujikeleta lokungu-100 ngeseshini

Kusabalala kwemiphumela yetiseshinikulahlekelwa ← | → inzuzo

−$620$0+$770

beka ligundvwane etulu kwebha · emabha labovu atiseshini letilahlekelwe, laluhlata letinenzuzo, libha lelikhanyako lihlanganisa $0

tiseshini letinenzuzo

36.8%

umphumela lophakatsi

−$60

umphumela wesilinganiso

−$54.99

letiphelelwe yimali

0.0%

i-percentile ye-5

−$370

kwehla kwemali lokukhulu lokuphakatsi

−$230

Imibuto

Ingabe i-Paroli, lisu le-roulette le-Martingale leliphambene, liphephile kune-Martingale?

Liphephile ngekutsi alikhoni kuletsa kulahlekelwa kunye lokuyinhlekelele. Alishibhi: kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngeliyunithi ngalinye lelibhejiwe kuyafana ncamashi.

Ngabe kufanele ngime ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu?

Nobe ngusiphi sikhatsi sekuma sisebenta ngendlela lefanako ngekwetibalo. Kutsatfu kujwayelekile ngobe umvuzo (emayunithi la-7) uvakala ufanele kulindzela futsi litfuba lekushaya (11.5%) alisilo lelingenalitsemba.

Lokuhlekisako

Kubheja kabusha imali leyiwinile kusekubheja.

Imitfombo

RouletteDoc. Kubuka konkhe emasu e-roulette. https://roulettedoc.com/strategy
Roulette77. Kuchazwa kwelisu netibonelo. https://roulette77.us/strategies/reverse-martingale
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Sehluko 13, i-roulette.
Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2021.

kubuyeketwe nga-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, licandza linyeindlela yekusebenta ↗imitfombo ↗