Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile
Linani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe loyibhejako: litindleko teseshini ngesilinganiso.
Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile = imali yonkhe lebhejiwe × 1/37. Linani lelibhejwako $10, kujikeleta lokungu-100: $1,000 kubhejiwe, $27 kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kubheja kakhulu, ngako kulahlekelwa kakhulu.
Imali yonkhe lebhejiwe, hhayi imali yekubheja
Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → kuncike ekutsini ingakanani imali lendlula etafuleni, hhayi ekutsini ute nalengakanani. Imali yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe → lengu-$100 lephindze ibhejwe kanyenti ingatfwala $2,000 wemali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe → na-$54 wekulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile; imali yekubheja lengu-$10,000 lebhejwe kanye kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → itfwala $10,000 wemali yonkhe lebhejiwe na-$270. Imali lengenako yelikhasino yintsela yetimoto letendlulako, futsi leto timoto ngulo lonkhe lithokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe → kuko konkhe kujikeleta.
Ifomula
E[kulahlekelwa] = Σ emanani labhejwako / 37. Kulobheja ngelinani linye loko kungu: linani lelibhejwako × kujikeleta / 37. Ekwenyuseni kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → kungu: linani lelibhejwako lelisemkhatsini × kujikeleta / 37, futsi linani lelibhejwako lelisemkhatsini liphakeme kunalelisisekelo, ngobe emanani labhejwako ayenyuka ngetikhatsi tekulahlekelwa lokulandzelanako. I-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → kusukela ku-$10 lelisisekelo emkhawulweni wa-$500 inesilinganiso lesicishe sibe ngu-$28 ekujikeleteni ngakunye eseshinini lendze, ngako ilahlekelwa cishe tikhatsi letintsatfu kwendlula kubheja $10 ngelinani linye, ngaphandle kwekushintja ematfuba anoma ngukuphi kubheja ngakunye.
Lijubane
Ematafula labukhoma ajikeleta tikhatsi letingu-40–60 ngelihora, emahholo emakhasino letingu-30–50, ematafula esivinini letingu-90 noma ngetulu, ematafula e-RNG ngekushesha njengobe uchofta. Ngelinani lelibhejwako lelifanako, lijubane ngilo lelinemtselela lomkhulu kunako konkhe ekulahlekelweni lokulindzelekile ngelihora: kusuka etafuleni lelihamba kancane ehholo uye etafuleni le-RNG lelidlalwa ngekujikeleta lokungu-200 ngelihora kuphindzaphindza kane titindleko tebusuku ngaphandle kwekushintja ematfuba.
Ngemnyaka
Umdlali lojwayelekile lodlala emahora lamabili ngeliviki nga-$10 etafuleni lelibukhoma lekujikeleta lokungu-50 ubheja kukonkhe $52,000 ngemnyaka futsi ukhokha cishe $1,400 wekulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile elisondvweni laseYurophu, $700 kulelaseFulansi, $2,700 kulelaseMelika. Tibalo tiyadzinisa kodvwa siphetfo asidzinisi: kukhetsa lisondvo nelitafula kubaluleke kakhulu kunanoma nguluphi luhlelo ngekuphindvwa lokungapheli, ngobe linani letinhlelo licandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → ncamashi.
Umdlalo lobaluleke ngetulu kwanoma nguliphi libhange
Umdlalo we-St. Petersburg, lowabekwa nguNicolaus Bernoulli nga-1713, uphosa luhlavu lwemali luze luwele ngelikhanda bese ukhokha $2 nangabe loko kutsatsa kuphosa kunye, $4 nangabe kutsatsa kukabili, $8 nangabe kutsatsa katsatfu, kuphindvwa kabili sikhatsi ngasinye. Bonkhe budze lobungenteka bengeta $1 elinanini lelilindzelekiletibaloLinani lelilindzelekileUmphumela wesilinganiso ngekubheja ngakunye ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lesidze. −1/37 yelinani lelibhejiwe kuko konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe →, ngako ephepheni umdlalo ubaluleke ngelinani lelingapheli. Akukho libhange lelingakhokha imiklomelo lengapheli, futsi nangabe imiklomelo inciphiselwe kuloko libhange lelinako, linani liyawa: ngelibhange la-$1 sigidzi umdlalo ubaluleke cishe nga-$21, nga-$1 inkhulungwane yetigidzi cishe nga-$31. I-Martingale ngumdlalo lofanako lobonwa ngalolunye luhlangotsi. Iwina liyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → linye cishe kuyo yonkhe imijikeleto yeluhlelo futsi ilahlekelwe ngiko konkhe eluchungechungeni lolude lolungavamile; ngaphandle kwemkhawulo luchungechunge lolude belungakhokhelwa ngekuwina lokukhulu ngalokuchubekako, kodvwa nangabe kunemkhawulo alukhokhelwa, ngiko umkhawulo welitafulalitafulaUmkhawulo welitafulaLinani lelincane nalelikhulu kakhulu lekubheja lelivunyelwe. Umkhawulo lophakeme ngiwo lomisa kwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kabili.Fundza konkhe → uncuma kutsi i-Martingale yehluleka njani kodvwa hhayi kutsi iyehluleka yini.
Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile akusiwo umphumela
Noma nguyiphi iseshini yinye itawehluka ekulahlekelweni kwayo lokulindzelekile, kanyenti ngetulu kwekulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngekwako. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-100 kwekubheja lokulingana nemali nga-$10 kuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → kungu-$100 nangabe kucatsaniswa nalokulindzelekile lokungu-−$27; iseshini lewinako akusiyo intfo lemangalisako. Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile kuyintsengo; kugucugucukatibaloKugucugucukaSilinganiso sekutsi imiphumela isabalele kangakanani etungeleta linani lelilindzelekile. Kukhulu ku-straight up, kuncane ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali.Fundza konkhe → kulisakha lekugocota; umphumela ngebusuku lobutsite sampula sinye.
Lifomula
Imibuto
Cha. Ngu-2.70% wako konkhe lokubhejako. Kuphindze ubheje imali loyiwinile kusho kutsi uyayibheja futsi.
Ngelihora, yebo, ngelijubane lelifanako. Ngemgomo ngamunye lofinyelelwe, cha: buka ingoti yekuphelelwa yimalitibaloIngoti yekuphelelwa yimaliLitfuba lekulahlekelwa yimali yonkhe yekubheja ngaphambi kwekufika emgomeni noma enanini lekujikeleta.Fundza konkhe →.
Emakhasino alinganisela kulahlekelwa kwakho lokulindzelekile ngekusuka ekubhejeni lokusemkhatsini nasesikhatsini losidlalile futsi abuyisela incenye yako njengetipho temahhala. Abuyisela incenye yentsengo, akakuniketi inzuzo yemdlali.
Lokuhlekisako
Imali yonkhe lebhejiwe × 1/37. Liwashi likufomula.
Imitfombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.