Ematfuba eluchungechunge ku-roulette
Luchungechunge lolude lwemubala munye luvamile. Futsi alusho lutfo ngekujikeleta lokulandzelako.
Letibovu letisihlanu kulandzelana: 2.7%. Letilishumi: 0.074%. Eseshinini yekujikeleta lokungu-200 luchungechunge lwesitfupha lwemubala munye luvela kanyenti kunekutsi lungaveli.
Luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa luta kangakhi
Elisondvweni lelinelicandza linye, kubheja lokulingana nemali kulahlekelwa kujikeleta lokungu-19 kulokungu-37. Umugca ngamunye ulitfuba lekutsi kujikeleta lokulandzelanako kulahlekelwe konkhe, nekutsi umdlali we-Martingale, lophindzaphindza kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye, sewulahlekelwe malini ngaleso sikhatsi.
| kulahlekelwa kulandzelana | litfuba | cishe 1 kwa- | lokulahlekile kute kube nyalo | kubheja lokulandzelako |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Litfuba ngu-19/37 lophindzaphindzwe ngalo kanye ngekulahlekelwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikeleteni lokutsite kunye. Iseshini lendze inekujikeleta lokunyenti lapho luchungechunge lolunjalo lungacala khona, ngako ebusuku bonkhe kungenteka kakhulu kunaloko lokukhonjiswa ngumugca munye.
Luchungechunge lunye
LitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lekutsi kujikeleta lokungu-k lokulandzelako konkhe kube kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → lingu-(18/37)ᵏ. Lokukabili: 23.7%. Lokusihlanu: 2.7%. Lokulishumi: 0.074%, cishe 1 ku-1,350. Lokungemashumi lamabili: 1 etigidzini letingu-1.8. Lokungemashumi lamabili nesitfupha, lirekhodi lase-Monte Carlo: 1 etigidzini letingu-137. Lawa ngematfuba eluchungechunge lolutsite loluchubeka ekujikeleteni lokutsite, lokuwumbuto locishe kute muntfu lowubutako ngempela.
Eseshinini
Umbuto bantfu labawushoko utsi “ngabe luchungechunge lwa-k lutawuvela kuletinye tindzawo eseshinini yami?”, futsi imphendvulo inkhulu kakhulu kuna-(18/37)ᵏ ngobe iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-200 iniketa cishe tindzawo letingu-200 lapho luchungechunge lungacala khona. Luchungechunge lwesitfupha noma ngetulu lwemubala lofanako, lobovu noma lomnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe →, luvela eseshinini yekujikeleta lokungu-200 cishe ku-94% wetikhatsi; lwesiphohlongo noma ngetulu cishe ku-47%; lwelishumi noma ngetulu cishe ku-14%. Nangabe ubita umbala kusengaphambi ematfuba ayehla, acishe abe ngu-75%, 27% na-7%. Umdlali lohlala ebusuku bonkhe utawubona luchungechunge lolude njalo ebusuku.
Kungani loku kubalulekile ku-Martingale
Konkhe kwenyuswa kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kunebudze beluchungechunge lobukwephulako: kulahlekelwa lokusitfupha kusukela ku-$10 lelisisekelo emkhawulweni wa-$500, lokulishumi ku-FibonaccilisuFibonacciKwenyuswa kwelinani lokulandzela lolandzelano 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: sinyatselo sinye phambili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, tinyatselo letimbili emuva ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe →, lokusihlanu nangabe uphindza katsatfu emadazininikubhejaLidazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha 2:1.Fundza konkhe →. Litfuba leluchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa lokusitfupha ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali lingu-(19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% emzamweni ngamunye, futsi iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-200 icuketse mhlawumbe imizamo lengu-100, ngako kwephuka kufika cishe etiseshinini letine kuletisihlanu talobo budze. Litfuba leluchungechunge ku-roulette ngiso sizatfu sekutsi loko kuwela eweni akusiyo intfo lengavamile.
Tinombolo letishisako naletibandako
Tibalo letifanako tisebenta ku-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe →. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-300 linani lelilindzelekile lenombolo ngayinye lingu-8.1; kuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → kucishe kube ngu-2.8. Lenye inombolo itawuphuma tikhatsi letingu-15 kantsi lenye tikhatsi leti-2 ngenhlanhla nje, njalo. Libhodi lemiphumela lelicakambisa tinombolo “letishisako” licakambisa licophelo lekusabalala lokujwayelekile. Lilabhorethri liyachaza kutsi kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakanani ngembi kwekutsi inombolo leshisakoinganekwaneInombolo leshisakoInombolo lesandza kuphuma kanyenti kunalokulindzelekile. Elisondvweni lelingachemile ayibikeli lutfo.Fundza konkhe → isho lokutsite (tinkhulungwane, elisondvweni linye lelatiwako).
Kutimela kulona lonkhe liphuzu
Luchungechunge lwaletibovu letilishumi alwenti lokumnyama kube nelitfuba lelikhulu, futsi alwenti nalokubovu kube nelitfuba lelikhulu. Kokubili kungu-18/37. Luchungechunge luluphawu lwekulandzelana lokungahlelekile futsi bekungaba yintfo lesolisako nangabe lungekho: kulandzelana kwekujikeleta lokungu-200 lokute luchungechunge lolwendlula lolune bekungaba bufakazi lobunemandla kakhulu bekuphatanyiswa kunaloko lokuneluchungechunge lwelishumi nakubili.
Lifomula
Imibuto
Luchungechunge lolwatiwako ngulolo lwaletimnyama letingu-26 e-Monte Carlo mhla tinga-18 Ingci 1913. Letibovu letingu-32 kulandzelana tabikwa elikhasino laseMelika nga-1943. Kokubili kuyavumelana nenhlanhla nangabe ucabanga kutsi emakhasino ajikeleta lisondvo kangakhi.
Kungu-18/37 noma kunjani. Bheja loko lokushiwo lisu lakho, noma ungabheji lutfo.
Cha. Kuchema kubonakala ngekutsi imigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → letsite iphuma kanyenti ekujikeleteni lokutinkhulungwane, hhayi ngeluchungechunge lwemubala.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakhi kwelisondvo laseYurophu, ngesilinganiso, ngaphambi kwekutsi tonkhe tinombolo letingu-37 tiphume lokungenani kanye?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Cishe kujikeleta lokungu-155 ngesilinganiso; i-median ngu-147.
Bala kulindza inombolo lensha yinye ngayinye. Kujikeleta kwekucala kuhlala kukhombisa inombolo lensha. Nawusubone inombolo lengu-1, imigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lengu-36 kulengu-37 isemisha, ngako inombolo lensha lelandzelako itsatsa kujikeleta lokungu-37/36 ngesilinganiso. Nawusubone tinombolo letingu-k, kutsatsa 37/(37 − k).
Hlanganisa kulindza: 37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + … + 37/1 = 37 × (1 + 1/2 + 1/3 + … + 1/37) ≈ 37 × 4.20 = kujikeleta lokungu-155.5.
Lokunyenti kwalokho kusekugcineni. Inombolo yekugcina yodvwa itsatsa kujikeleta lokungu-37 ngesilinganiso, kantsi letisihlanu tekugcina cishe 85. Elisondvweni laseMelika sibalo lesifanako sinika cishe 161. Le yinkinga yemcoki wemakhuphoni; silinganiso lesifanako siphuma ekubaleni lokujwayelekile.
Ekujikeleteni lokungu-37 kwelisondvo laseYurophu, kujikeleta kunye kumgodzi ngamunye, ungalindzela kubona tinombolo letehlukene letingakhi?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Cishe 23.6. Cishe ingcenye yesitsatfu yetinombolo, cishe 13, atiphumi nakancane.
Tsatsa inombolo yinye, asitsi 17. Kukujikeleta ngakunye ayiphumi ngelitfuba la-36/37, ngako iphutsa konkhe kujikeleta lokungu-37 ngelitfuba la-(36/37)³⁷ ≈ 0.363.
Yonkhe inombolo inelitfuba lelifanako, ngako ngesilinganiso tinombolo letingu-37 × 0.363 ≈ 13.4 atikho kantsi 37 − 13.4 ≈ 23.6 tiyaphuma, letinyenti tato kabili nobe ngetulu.
Badlali be-roulette loku bakubita umtsetfo wetingcenye letintsatfu. Akusiwo umtsetfo, kumane kuyi-arithmetic yekuphindzaphindza: ekulandzelaneni lokude njengelisondvo, cishe ingcenye yesitsatfu yetinombolo ayiphumi, elisondvweni lelingachemile njengakulamanye. Emigodzini lengu-38 lesabelo naso ngu-(37/38)³⁸ ≈ 0.363; elisondvweni lelikhulu kusondzela ku-1/e ≈ 0.368.
Umngani wakho ukukhombisa tinhlu letimbili temibala lengu-50, lebovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → nobe lemnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe →, ngayinye kutsiwa ivela elisondvweni lapho emacandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → angakabalwa. Lolunye luhlu lushintja umbala tikhatsi letingu-25 futsi luchungechunge lwalo lolude kakhulu luyisitfupha. Lolunye lushintja tikhatsi letingu-35 futsi alukaze lweca kulokutsatfu. Ngulophi lolwacanjwa?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Lwesibili. Luhlu lwemaciniso lushintja cishe tikhatsi letingu-24 nobe 25. Lolunekushintja lokungu-35 luvela cishe kanye etinhlwini letingu-500, kantsi lolungenaluchungechunge lolude kunalokutsatfu cishe kabili kulokungu-100.
Umbala lomusha ngamunye uphindza lowendlulile nobe ushintja, ingcenye nengcenye, ngako ematfuba langu-49 ekushintja anika kushintja lokungu-24.5 ngesilinganiso, kungeta nobe kususa cishe 3.5. Emashumi lamatsatfu nesihlanu kungetinyatselo letintsatfu letinjalo ngetulu kwesilinganiso; lisondvo lelingachemile liveta kushintja lokunyenti kanje cishe kanye etinhlwini letingu-500.
Luchungechunge lusho indzaba lefanako. Luhlu lwemaciniso lwa-50 lunaluchungechunge lwalokune nobe ngetulu cishe ku-98% wesikhatsi, futsi luchungechunge lwalo lolude kakhulu kuvamise kuba ngulwesihlanu nobe lwesitfupha.
Bantfu labacelwa kutsi baceme luhlu lolungahlelekile bashintja kakhulu, ngobe luchungechunge lwalokune nobe lokusihlanu kubo lubukeka njengelisu. Taylor (2021) ukhombisa luphawu lolufanako etinhlwini tekuphosa luhlamvu lwemali letacanjwa ngemfundzi: kungahleleki kwemaciniso kunaluchungechunge lolunyenti kunaloko bantfu labakulindzele.
Incwadzi yetindzaba telikhasino ilandzisa ngemdlali lonombolo yakhe yaphuma tikhatsi letisihlanu kulandzelana, futsi ikubita ngerekhodi. Kuyivelakancane kangakanani loko elisondvweni laseYurophu? Futsi kufanele kwenteke kangakhi kulenye indzawo elikhasino linye lelinematafula langu-20, ngalinye lijikeleta tikhatsi letingu-40 ngelihora, imini nebusuku?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Inombolo lebitwe ngeligama iphuma tikhatsi letisihlanu kulandzelana: 1 ku-69 wetigidzi. Noma nguyiphi inombolo lephuma tikhatsi letine letengetiwe ngemuva kwekuvela kwayo kwekucala: 1 ku-1.87 wetigidzi. Lelo likhasino lijikeleta cishe tikhatsi letingu-7 wetigidzi ngemnyaka, ngako kufanele libone luchungechunge lwalokusihlanu tikhatsi letintsatfu nobe letine ngemnyaka.
Inombolo lebitwe ngeligama iphuma ngelitfuba la-1/37 kukujikeleta ngakunye, ngako letisihlanu kulandzelana tinelitfuba la-(1/37)⁵ = 1 ku-69,343,957. Kodvwa kute lobita inombolo kusengaphambili. Nobe ngabe yini lephuma kucala, kujikeleta lokune lokulandzelako kufanele kuyiphindze: (1/37)⁴ = 1 ku-1,874,161.
Ematafula langu-20 × kujikeleta lokungu-40 × emahora langu-24 × emalanga langu-365 = kujikeleta lokungu-7,008,000 ngemnyaka. Kujikeleta ngakunye kungacala luchungechunge, ngako likhasino lilindzele 7,008,000/1,874,161 ≈ luchungechunge lolungu-3.7 lwalokusihlanu ngemnyaka.
Akukho rekhodi lelisemtsetfweni lalolu hlobo, futsi alidzingeki: sehlakalo lesingavamile etafuleni linye siyintfo lejwayelekile elikhasino lonkhe, futsi tindzaba titjelwa ngelitafula lapho kwenteka khona. Lendzaba, ku-Goldman (2007), yenteka elisondvweni lelinelicandza lelikabili, lapho tibalo tingu-1 ku-79 wetigidzi na-1 ku-2.09 wetigidzi.
Lokuhlekisako
Luchungechunge lolude yindlela lokungahlelekile lokubukeka ngayo.
Imitfombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.