Kubaluleka ngekwetibalo
“Lokubalulekile” kusho lokungalindzelekile elisondvweni lelingachemile, hhayi “lokwangempela” futsi hhayi “lokunenzuzo”.
I-p-value lengu-0.05 isho kutsi lisondvo lelingachemile lingakhicita iphethini lengalingani kangaka kanye etikhatsini letingemashumi lamabili. Nangabe ubuka emasondvo langemashumi lamabili, linye litawuphumelela ngengoti.
Yini i-p-value
LitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lekubona kuchezuka lokungenani lokukhulu njengaloko lokubonwe, nangabe lisondvo belingachemile. Kusitatimende mayelana nedatha ngaphansi kwekucabanga lokutsite, hhayi mayelana nelisondvo. I-p-valuelilabhorethriI-p-valueLitfuba lekubona kuphambuka lokungenani lokukhulu njengaloko lokubonwe nangabe lisondvo belingachemile.Fundza konkhe → lengu-0.03 itsi: lisondvo lelingachemile likwenta loku ku-3% wetikhatsi. Ayisho kutsi: kunelitfuba lelingu-97% lekutsi lisondvo lichemile. Sitatimende sesibili besingadzinga kwati kutsi emasondvo lachemilelilabhorethriLisondvo lelichemileLisondvo lapho tici talo temtimba tenta leminye imigodzi ibe nematfuba langetulu kwa-1/37. Kuyindlalane, kutfolakala kuphela ngekujikeleta lokutinkhulungwane lokubhaliwe.Fundza konkhe → avame kangakanani kwasekucaleni, futsi elikhasino lanamuhla ayivelakancane kakhulu, lokwenta umphumela munye lobalulekile ube nelitfuba lelikhulu kakhulu lekuba yinhlanhla nje kunekuba yintfo letfoliwe.
Kucatsanisa lokunyenti
Kuhlolwa ngakunye lokwentako elisondvweni lelingachemile kunelitfuba lelingu-5% lekuphumelela elizingeni lelingu-5%. Hlola emasondvo langemashumi lamabili, linye liyaphumelela. Hlola lisondvo linye etikhatsini letingemashumi lamabili letehlukene, sinye siyaphumelela. Hlola isampula yinye ngekucocelwa kwemigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lokungu-37, kucocelwa kwetigabalisondvoSigabaIngcenye lelandzelanako yemigodzi elisondvweni, lehlukile kulicembu letinombolo elithebuleni lekubheja.Fundza konkhe → lokusitfupha nekucocelwa kwemibala lokutsatfu, futsi lokutsite kutawuphumelela. Likhambi kuncuma kuhlolwa ngaphambi kwekubuka idatha, ukwente kanye, bese ucinisekisa ngedatha lensha. Kuhlola lokunyenti lokutfola lisondvo “lelichemile” ngalokuvamile kuko lokukhicite umphumela.
Kubaluleka nawucatsanisa nebukhulu
Isampula lenkhulu kakhulu ingenta kuchema lokuncane kakhulu kube lokubalulekile. Umgodzi loshaywa ku-1/36.5 esikhundleni sa-1/37 uliphutsa langempela lebelingafinyelela kubaluleka ekujikeleteni lokuyitigidzi letimbalwa futsi lisatawukwenta ulahlekelwe yimali enkhokhelweniimaliInkhokheloLoko lokubuyiswa kubheja lokuwinile, lokushiwo ngekutsi “X ku-1” ngetulu kwelinani lelibhejiwe lelibuyiswako.Fundza konkhe → lengu-35 ku-1. Lokubalulekile kumdlali bukhulu bemtselela: ukhona yini umgodzi loshaywa ku-1/36 nobe ngcono, futsi ngalokungakanani? I-chi-square ikutjela ngelisondvo; lizinga lekushaywa kuphela lelikutjela ngekubheja.
Emandla ekutfola
Lelinye liphutsa kungakuboni kuchema lokukhona. Ngekujikeleta lokungu-1,000, umgodzi loshaywa ku-1/30 (kuchema lokukhulu kakhulu) utfolakala cishe incenye yetikhatsi kuphela elizingeni lelingu-5%. Bukhulu besampula, hhayi buhlakani, yibo lobulungisa loku. Likhasi lelitsi Bukhulu besampula liniketa tinombolo.
Lizinga lelisebentako
Kute sicelo sekuchema sinakekele: kuhlolwa lokukhetfwe kusesengaphambili, p < 0.01 esikhundleni sa-0.05, kuphindza esampuleni lesimele yebukhulu lobufanako, kanye nelizinga lekushaywa lelilinganisiwe emigodzini letsandvwako lelingu-1/34 nobe ngcono ngemuva kwekuphindza. Lelo zinga lifinyelelwe tikhatsi letimbalwa nje emlandvweni wemdlalo futsi alikaze, ngekwaloko lokukhonjiswa ngemarekhodi emphakatsi, lifinyelelwe elisondvweni lanamuhla lelinakekelwako.
Imibuto
Ngumkhuba kusukela ngema-1920. Kute lokukhetsekile ngawo; 0.01 lizinga lelinengcondvo kakhulu nangabe uhlola emasondvo lamanyenti.
Mhlawumbe alikhiciti imiphumela lelinganako. Kungaba ngumtselela we-croupier, liphutsa lekubhala nobe inkinga yekufaka idatha. Phindza.
Cha. Ukutjela kutsi kusabalala akulungile. Kuhlatiya tigaba nebukhulu bemtselela kukutjela kutsi kuphi.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Lisondvo lelinelicandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → lelikabili lelabikwa labona lidazinikubhejaLidazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha 2:1.Fundza konkhe → lekucala liphuma tikhatsi letingu-742 ekujikeleteni lokungu-3,000. Loko kungaphansi kwesilinganiso ngakuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → lokungakhi, futsi lisondvo lelingachemile belingakwenta kangakhi?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Cishe kuphambuka lokujwayelekile lokungu-8.1 ngaphansi. Lisondvo lelingachemile belingakwenta cishe kanye ekuzameni lokungu-3 × 10¹⁵, lokusho kutsi akukaze. Imphendvulo leshicilelwe nembuto itsi 11.75; tsine sitfola 8.07.
Lidazini lekucala linetinombolo letingu-12 kulemigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lengu-38. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-3,000 linesilinganiso sekungena lokungu-3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4, nekusabalala lokungu-√(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
742 ungaphansi kwesilinganiso nga-205.4: 205.4/25.5 = kusabalala lokungu-8.07.
Lisondvo lelingachemile lisilela ngekusabalala lokutsatfu cishe kanye ekuzameni lokungu-740; ngekusabalala lokusiphohlongo, cishe kanye ku-3 × 10¹⁵ (lijika lensimbi, luhlangotsi lunye). Kunaka kutsi umfundzi wabona lelibi kakhulu kulamadazini lamatsatfu akushintji lutfo lolubalulekile. Umphumela lonjena usho kutsi lisondvo, nobe kubala, akulungi. Elisondvweni lelinelicandza linye kubala lokufanako bekutawuba ngaphansi ngekusabalala lokungu-9.0 (silinganiso 973.0, kusabalala 25.6).
Lokuhlekisako
Linye kulemasondvo langemashumi lamabili langachemile “libalulekile”. Loko kukho lokushiwo yileyo nombolo.
Imitfombo
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, imibuto nge-roulette.