Kugucugucuka
Kungani i-straight up nekubheja kulokubovu lokunekulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → lokufanako kuva shengatsi yimidlalo lehlukene.
Kugucugucuka (variance) kukala kutsi imiphumela isakateke kangakanani kutungeleta linani lelilindzelekile. Kuliyunithi ngalinye lelibhejiwe kucishe kube ngu-34 ku-straight up futsi cishe ku-1 kulokubovu.
Ifomula yekubheja kunye
Ekubhejeni lokukhokha W ku-1 ngelitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lelingu-p, umphumela kuliyunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → ngalinye ngu-+W ngelitfuba lelingu-p na-−1 ngelitfuba lelingu-1 − p. Linani lelilindzelekiletibaloLinani lelilindzelekileUmphumela wesilinganiso ngekubheja ngakunye ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lesidze. −1/37 yelinani lelibhejiwe kuko konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe → lingu-pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. KugucugucukatibaloKugucugucukaSilinganiso sekutsi imiphumela isabalele kangakanani etungeleta linani lelilindzelekile. Kukhulu ku-straight up, kuncane ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali.Fundza konkhe → kungu-E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Ku-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 34.08. KulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 0.999.
Kusho kutsini eseshini
Kugucugucuka kuyahlangana ekujikeleteni lokutimeletibaloKujikeleta lokutimeleKujikeleta ngakunye kunematfuba lafanako noma ngabe umlandvo unjani. Sisekelo sako konkhe kubala kulelisayithi.Fundza konkhe →, ngako ekujikeleteni lokungu-N ngelinani lelibhejwako lelingagucuki kugucugucuka kwelinani lelipheleleko kungu-N × linani lelibhejwako² × σ², futsi kuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → kungu-σ × linani lelibhejwako × √N. Kujikeleta lokungu-100 nga-$10: kuphambuka lokujwayelekile kucishe kube ngu-$584 ku-straight up na-$100 kulokubovu, kutungeleta linani lelilindzelekile lelifanako lelingu-−$27. Lomunye umdlali ubona imiphumela itsintjintja ngemakhulu; lomunye ubona kukhukhuleka kancane. Bobabili bakhokha intsengo lefanako.
Kugucugucuka netinhlelo
Kwenyuswa kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → akuyishintji i-EV kuliyunithi ngalinye lelibhejiwe kodvwa kushintja kokubili linani lelibhejwako nesimo sekusabalala kwemiphumela. I-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → yehlisa kugucugucuka kwetiseshini letinyenti (kuwina lokuncane lokunyenti) futsi yengeta umsila lomkhulu (kulahlekelwa lokukhulu lokungavamile); kugucugucuka lokuphelele kuto tonkhe tiseshini kuphakeme kunakukubheja ngelinani linyelisuKubheja ngelinani linyeKubheja linani lelifanako kuko konkhe kujikeleta. Lizinga lesisekelo lekucatsaniswa nalo konkhe kwenyuswa kwelinani.Fundza konkhe → ngenca yalowo msila. I-ParolilisuParoliKwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina: phindza kabili ngemuva kwekuwina, buyela ekucaleni ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa noma ngemuva kwekuwina katsatfu kulandzelana. Kuphindze kutsiwe: i-Martingale lephambene.Fundza konkhe → yenta lokuphambene. Kukhetsa luhlelo kukukhetsa simo sekugucugucuka; silinganiso asikho kuloko lokukhetsako.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- phakatsi −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1,120
Lisu lekubheja ngelinani linye ku-rouletteLisu le-Paroli ku-roulette (i-Martingale lephambene)
Kungani kubalulekile kumdlali
Kugucugucuka ngiko lokwenta tiseshini letimfisha tingabikeleki futsi letindze tibikeleke. Nangabe σ = $100 ne-EV = −$27 ekujikeleteni lokungu-100, inzuzo yelikhasino yincenye yesine yemsindvo (kugucugucuka lokungahlelekile) futsi iseshini lewinako yintfo lejwayelekile. Ekujikeleteni lokungu-10,000 i-EV ingu-−$2,700 na-σ ngu-$1,000; nyalo inzuzo yelikhasino icishe iphindvwe katsatfu kunemsindvo futsi kuwina lokulandzelanako kusehlakalo sema-sigma lamatsatfu. Kugucugucuka kungumngani wemdlali esikhatsini lesifishane futsi kungumngani welikhasino esikhatsini lesidze.
Kugucugucuka kwekubheja lokuhlanganisiwe
Ekubhejeni lokunyenti ekujikeleteni lokufanako, imiphumela iyahlobana (kuphuma kwa-17 kuphindze kube kuwina kulokumnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe → nakulidazinikubhejaLidazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha 2:1.Fundza konkhe → lesibili), ngako kugucugucuka akuhlanganiswa nje kalula. Lithulusi Umakhi wekubheja libala kusabalala lokucondzile kwanoma nguliphi licoco lemathokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe → ngekubala yonkhe imiphumela lengu-37, lokuyiyo kuphela indlela lefanele yekukwenta.
Lifomula
Imibuto
Cha. Konkhe kubheja kunelinani lelilindzelekile lelifanako. Kugucugucuka lokukhulu kusho kutsintjintja lokukhulu eceleni kwalo.
Kubheja lokulingana nemalikubhejaKubheja lokulingana nemaliLokubovu/lokumnyama, lengalingani/lelinganako, phansi/etulu. Tinombolo letingu-18, kukhokha 1:1.Fundza konkhe →, nga-σ ≈ 1 kuliyunithi ngalinye. Kuphansi kakhulu nge-la partageumtsetfoLa partageUmtsetfo wesiFulentji: nangabe kuphuma licandza, sigamu selinani lelibhejiwe ekubhejeni lokulingana nemali siyabuyiswa. Kwehlisa inzuzo yelikhasino ngesigamu kulokubheja kuye ku-1.35%.Fundza konkhe →, lephindze ingcono nesilinganiso.
Inzuzo lelindzelekile iyafana edoleni ngalinye; kugucugucuka kutsintsa kuphela kutsi imali lengenako yelikhasino ayilingani kangakanani, futsi likhasino linetinkhulungwane tebadlali letikwenta kulingane.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Badlali lababili ngamunye ubheja $1 ngekujikeleta kujikeleta lokungu-100 elisondvweni laseYurophu, lomunye uhlala abheja kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe →, lomunye uhlala abheja ku-17. Ngubani lonelitfuba lelikhulu lekuba sembili ekugcineni?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Umdlali we-17: 50.9%, ngekucatsaniswa na-35.5% walokubovu. Bobabili balahlekelwa $2.70 ngesilinganiso.
Lokubovu: umdlali usembili nawuwina tikhatsi letingu-51 nobe ngetulu kuletingu-100, ngasinye ngelitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → la-18/37. Kusabalala kwe-binomial kunika 35.5%, kantsi kuwina lokungu-50 ncamashi, kulingana, kunika lamanye 7.7%.
Inombolo 17: kuwina ngakunye kubuyisa $36, ngako kuwina lokubili (−$28) akwenele kantsi lokutsatfu (+$8) kuyenela. Litfuba lekungena lokutsatfu nobe ngetulu ekujikeleteni lokungu-100 nga-1/37 ngu-50.9%.
Umdlali we-straight up uba sembili kanyenti, kodvwa imiphumela igucuka kakhulu: kungena kunye ngetulu nobe ngaphansi kuhambisa umphumela nga-$36, futsi badlali labasemuva bavamise kuba semuva kakhulu. Bollman (2024) unika tibalo taseMelika, 26.5% na-49.2%.
Lokuhlekisako
Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile lokufanako. Lokunye kwalokubheja kukutjela ngako ngekumemeta.
Imitfombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.