Sinyatselo ngesinyatselo: Iseshini ye-Martingale
Emadola lalishumi kulokubovu, aphindvwa kabili ngemuva kwako konkhe kulahlekelwa, etafuleni la-$500. Kujikeleta ngekujikeleta, kufaka ekhatsi kujikeleta lokukucedzako.
Iseshini lelingisiwe ye-Martingale kusuka emalini yekubheja ya-$1,000. Kuwina lokuncane lokumashumi lamane nakunye, bese kulahlekelwa kasitfupha kulandzelana kanye nekubheja kwesikhombisa lokwaliwako. Iseshini iphela yehlile nga-$220 ngemuva kwekuba etulu nga-$410, futsi loko kuko kanye loko luhlelo lolukwentako.
Luhlelo
Bheja $10 kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe →. Ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, phindza kabili. Ngemuva kwekuwina, buyela ku-$10. Umkhawulo welitafulalitafulaUmkhawulo welitafulaLinani lelincane nalelikhulu kakhulu lekubheja lelivunyelwe. Umkhawulo lophakeme ngiwo lomisa kwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kabili.Fundza konkhe → ngu-$500, ngako emanani labhejwako ngu-10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 bese kuba kubheja kwa-$640 litafula lelitakwala. Kulahlekelwa kasitfupha kulandzelana kwephula luhlelo; umzamo ngamunye une-(19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% wekwenta loko, futsi iseshini yekujikeleta lokungu-100 inemizamo lecishe ibe ngu-50. Lokulindzelekile: cishe litfuba la-60% lekwephuka ekujikeleteni lokungu-100, nekulahlekelwa kwa-$630 nakwenteka.
Kujikeleta 1–30
I-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → lejwayelekile: luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa kanye kuya kutsatfu, ngulunye luphetfwa kuwina lokuletsa +$10. Ngekujikeleta 30 sesiwine kasi-17, ngakunye kuvala umjikeleto, futsi sisetulu nga-$170. Linani lelibhejwako lelikhulu kakhulu kute kube nyalo bekungu-$80 ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kutsatfu. Kuva shengatsi ngumshini wekuphrinta emaphepha a-$10.
Kujikeleta 31–60
Lokunye lokufanako, kanye nemjikeleto munye wekulahlekelwa kane (emanani labhejwako afika ku-$160, bese kuwina) lowabeka kafishane $310 etafuleni futsi lowativa njengesibindzi. Ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-60: imijikeleto lengu-41 icedvwe, etulu nga-$410, futsi liphuzu leliphansi lemali yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe → kusukela ekujikeleteni 30 bekungu-$1,040. I-histogram yayo yonkhe iseshini ye-Martingale ibukeka kanje ingcenye lenkhulu yebudze bayo.
Kujikeleta 61–66
L L L L L L. Emanani labhejwako 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 kulahlekile. Kubheja lokulandzelako bekutawuba ngu-$640; umkhawulo ngu-$500. Luhlelo lwephukile. Singabheja $500 (futsi nangabe kuwina, sisehlile nga-$130 emjikeletweni) noma sibuyele ku-$10 sivume kulahlekelwa. Tinombolo letimnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe → noma emacandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → lasitfupha kulandzelana tinelitfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → la-1.8% emjikeletweni ngamunye. Besesigijime imijikeleto lecishe ibe ngu-45. Litfuba lekufika kulelo phuzu kulokutsite emijikeletweni lengu-45 belicishe libe ngu-55%. Bekungasibo bumanyamane; bekuyi-median.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- phakatsi −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Tibalo
Etulu nga-$410 ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-60, sehlile nga-$220 ngemuva kwa-66. Imali yonkhe lebhejiwe: cishe $2,100 ekujikeleteni lokungu-66, nangabe kucatsaniswa na-$660 yemuntfu lobheja $10 ngelinani linye. Kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe → ku-$2,100 wemali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe → ngu-$57; −$220 yetfu yangempela icishe ibe yincenye yesitsatfu yekuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → ngaphansi kwaloko, lokungesiko lokumangalisako eluhlelweni lolusabalalo lwalo lunemsila lomudze ngesencele. Kube besime ekujikeleteni 60 nemkhawulo wekuwinalisuUmkhawulo wekuwinaUmgomo wenzuzo lobekwe kusenesikhatsi, lapho uvala khona iseshini.Fundza konkhe → wa-$400, besitawuhamba setulu nga-$410, futsi iseshini lelandzelako beyitawutfwala i-1.8% lefanako emjikeletweni ngamunye.
Loko lokukhonjiswa yiseshini
I-Martingale iguculela kubheja kwa-48.65% kube luchungechunge loluwina ku-98% wemijikeleto yalo futsi lulahlekelwe ngemayunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → langu-63 ku-2% lolusele. Ayikushintji kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekile ngelidola ngalinye; iphindzaphindza emadola. Lobheja ngelinani linye eceleni kwetfu wabheja incenye yesitsatfu yaloko futsi walahlekelwa, ngesilinganiso, yincenye yesitsatfu yaloko. Umdlali losebentisa lolu luhlelo umnyaka wonkhe utawuwina linyenti lebusuku futsi alahlekelwe ngumnyaka.
Luchungechunge lwekulahlekelwa luta kangakhi
Elisondvweni lelinelicandza linye, kubheja lokulingana nemali kulahlekelwa kujikeleta lokungu-19 kulokungu-37. Umugca ngamunye ulitfuba lekutsi kujikeleta lokulandzelanako kulahlekelwe konkhe, nekutsi umdlali we-Martingale, lophindzaphindza kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye, sewulahlekelwe malini ngaleso sikhatsi.
| kulahlekelwa kulandzelana | litfuba | cishe 1 kwa- | lokulahlekile kute kube nyalo | kubheja lokulandzelako |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Litfuba ngu-19/37 lophindzaphindzwe ngalo kanye ngekulahlekelwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikeleteni lokutsite kunye. Iseshini lendze inekujikeleta lokunyenti lapho luchungechunge lolunjalo lungacala khona, ngako ebusuku bonkhe kungenteka kakhulu kunaloko lokukhonjiswa ngumugca munye.
Imibuto
Kulahlekelwa kasiligcabhanyiswa kuyalwephula esikhundleni sakasitfupha: 0.25% emjikeletweni ngamunye, futsi $5,110 kuyalahleka nakwenteka. Liwa lelingakavami, liwa leliphakeme, −2.70% lefanako.
Bekutawuwina ku-48.65% wetikhatsi futsi kushiye umjikeleto ku-−$130 noma kunjalo. Kute sinyatselo lesihle ngemuva kwe-Martingale leyephukile; kukhona kuphela linani lelibhejwako lolikhetsa ngemuva.
Yebo, kuleyo seshini. Hhayi kusilinganiso setiseshini tonkhe.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Elitafuleni la-$1 kuya ku-$500, umdlali we-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → ucala nga-$1 kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → elisondvweni lelinelicandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → linye. Kulahlekelwa lokungakhi ngekulandzelana lokumisa kuphindzaphindza kabili, sekulahleke malini ngaleso sikhatsi, futsi kwenteka kangakanani?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Kulahlekelwa lokuyimfica: kulahleke $511, futsi kubheja lokulandzelako bekutawuba ngu-$512. Kwenteka kanye kulokucishe kube luchungechunge lolungu-403.
Emanani labhejwako ngu-1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 na-256: kanyekanye $511. Lelishumi bekutawuba ngu-$512, ngetulu kwemkhawulo. Kubheja kwa-$500 lokuwinako kusamshiya umdlali alahlekelwe $11; lokulahlekelwako kumshiya alahlekelwe $1,011.
Lokubovu kulahlekelwa ngelitfuba la-19/37, ngako kulahlekelwa lokuyimfica ngekulandzelana kunelitfuba la-(19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, kanye kulokucishe kube luchungechunge lolungu-403. Luchungechunge ngalunye loluphelile luwina $1, ngako umdlali lindzela cishe $402 wekuwina lokuncane ngaphambi kwekulahlekelwa kunye kwa-$511, futsi 2.70% wako konkhe lokubhejiwe kusalahleka ngesilinganiso.
Elisondvweni lelinemacandza lamabili litfuba ngu-(20/38)⁹, kanye kulokucishe kube ngu-323. Bollman (2021) ubhala “cishe 1 ku-833”, lokungu-(18/38)⁹, litfuba lekuwina lokuyimfica ngekulandzelana.
Lokuhlekisako
Kuwina lokuncane lokumashumi lamane nakunye nekulahlekelwa lokukhulu kunye. Lolo lonkhe luhlelo.
Imitfombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”