Lilabhorethri ye-roulette · Lilabhorethri · Sitatistiki · emaminithi 7

Bukhulu besampula

Kudzingeka kujikeleta lokungakhi ngaphambi kwekutsi liphethini lisho lokutsite.

Imphendvulo lemfisha

Kutfola ngekuciniseka lokwenele umgodzi loshaywa 1 kulokungu-30 esikhundleni sa-1 kulokungu-37 kudzinga kujikeleta lokulinganiselwa ku-4,400. Umgodzi wa-1 kulokungu-35, lohlobo lebelungakhokha ngempela, udzinga kujikeleta lokungaba ngu-70,000.

1 kulokungu-25
kujikeleta ~1,100
1 kulokungu-30
kujikeleta ~4,400
1 kulokungu-35
kujikeleta ~70,000
umsindvo
∝ 1/√n

Kungani kunyenti kangaka

Luphawu, lokungukushaywa lokumbalwa lokwengetiwe kukho konkhe kujikeleta lokuyinkhulungwane, lucane nangabe luchatsaniswa nemsindvo we-binomial longu-√(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Umsindvo wehla njengo-1/√n, ngako kwehlisa kungaciniseki kube nguhhafu kudzinga kujikeleta lokuphindvwe kane. UmgodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → longu-1/30 ushaywa tikhatsi letingu-33 enkhulungwaneni lapho kulindzelwe letingu-27: kushaywa lokwengetiwe lokusitfupha, lokune-kuphambuka lokujwayelekiletibaloKuphambuka lokujwayelekileImphandze yesikwele yekugucugucuka (variance); libanga lelivamile lemphumela kusuka enanini lelilindzelekile.Fundza konkhe → lokucishe kube sihlanu. Isampula yinye yenkhulungwane ayikwati kuhlukanisa loku ngekwetsembeka.

Kujikeleta lokudzingekako kutfola umgodzi lochemile (emandla langu-80%, luhlangotsi lunye ku-5%)kujikeleta
1 kulokungu-20
≈ 500
1 kulokungu-25
≈ 1,100
1 kulokungu-30
≈ 4,400
1 kulokungu-33
≈ 10,000
1 kulokungu-35
≈ 70,000
kujikeleta
035000≈ 70,000
Kuchema lokungakhokha (1/35 noma ngcono) kudzinga emashumi etinkhulungwane tekujikeleta. Loko longakubona ekujikeleteni lokuyinkhulungwane kukhulu kakhulu futsi bekungeke kusindze ekulungisweni kwelisondvo.

Lifomula

Ekuhloleni kweluhlangotsi lunye kwemgodzi munye ezingeni le-5% ngemandla langu-80%, i-n ledzingekako icishe ibe ngu-((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², lapho u-p₀ = 1/37 bese u-p₁ lizinga losola kutsi likhona. Loku kusebenta emgodzini munye lokhetfwe kusenesikhatsi. Nangabe uhlola yonkhe imigodzi lengu-37 ufuna leshisa kakhulu, phindzaphindza i-n cishe kabili kuya katsatfu kute lizinga lemiphumela yemanga lihlale liliciniso.

Kufundza lokusebentako

Inombolo leshisakoinganekwaneInombolo leshisakoInombolo lesandza kuphuma kanyenti kunalokulindzelekile. Elisondvweni lelingachemile ayibikeli lutfo.Fundza konkhe → ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-300 ngumsindvo nje. Ngemuva kwalokungu-3,000 sisizatfu sekucoca lokunye lokungu-3,000 kulelisondvo linye. Ngemuva kwalokungu-30,000 kungenteka kube lisondvo lelifanele kukalwa ngekwesakhiwo. Konkhe kusetjentiswa kwekuchema lokubhalwe emlandvweni kwakhelwe etikwemashumi etinkhulungwane tekujikeleta lokubhalwe phansi, futsi kunye nekunye kwatsatsa tinyanga.

kujikeleta lokubhalwe phansilongakusho ngekwetsembeka
< 500lutfo mayelana nanoma ngumuphi umgodzi
1,000kuhlolwa kwe-chi-square kungentiwa; kutfola emaphutsa lamakhulu kuphela
5,000umgodzi longu-1/30 bewungahle uvele; longu-1/35 bewungeke uvele
20,000umgodzi longu-1/33 uvela ngalokucacile; tigaba tingadvwetjwa
70,000+umgodzi longu-1/35 lonenzuzo ungacinisekiswa
nanoma ngumuphi linani, lihlanganiswe kusuka emasondvweni lahlukenelutfo; uhlola inhlanganisela

Tindleko tedatha

Ngekujikeleta lokungu-50 ngelihora, kujikeleta lokungu-10,000 kungemahora langu-200 ekubhala phansi, noma emaviki lambalwa ekukopisha imilandvo leshicilelwe, kusuka enhloko yelisondvotinsitaInhloko yelisondvoKusho lokufanako ne-rotor: ingcenye lejikeletako lephetse tinombolo.Fundza konkhe → yinye leyatiwako lelikhasino lingakayijikisi noma lingakayifaki ema-fret lamasha ngaleso sikhatsi. Loku, hhayi sitatistiki, yiko lokwente kutsi kudlala ngekuchema kuphele: umjikeleto wekulungiswa kwelisondvo mfisha kunemjikeleto wekucoca idatha.

Kufundza umlandvo wekujikeleta loshicilelwe

Bukhulu besampula kuze kubonakale inzuzo

Tibalo letifanako tisho kutsi kutsatsa sikhatsi lesingakanani kutsi umdlali abone inzuzo yelikhasinotibaloInzuzo yelikhasinoIncenye yelinani ngalinye lelibhejiwe leligcinwa likhasino ngesilinganiso: 2.70% ku-roulette yaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe → emiphumeleni yakhe: cishe kujikeleta lokungu-1,400 kwekubheja lokulingana nemali kute kube ne-sigma yinye, nalokungu-10,000 kute inzuzo ingabe isangabateka. Nobe ngubani lotsi luhlelo luyasebenta ekujikeleteni lokumbalwa kunaloko ubika umsindvo nje.

Lifomula

n ≈ ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))²
σ(linani) = √(n·p·(1−p))

Imibuto

Ngabe ikhona yini indlela lemfisha?

Kuhlola tigabalisondvoSigabaIngcenye lelandzelanako yemigodzi elisondvweni, lehlukile kulicembu letinombolo elithebuleni lekubheja.Fundza konkhe → esikhundleni semigodzi kuyasita, ngobe liphutsa lesakhiwo ngalokuvamile litsintsa incenye yelisondvo futsi luphawu luyahlangana kuyo yonkhe imigodzi. Kodvwa loku akukushintji lizinga lebukhulu.

Ngingayihlanganisa yini idatha yelisondvo linye etinsukwini letehlukene?

Yebo, nangabe inhloko yelisondvo iyafana futsi ingakalungiswa. Yileyo incenye lenzima kuyati.

Kungani emandla langu-80%?

Ngumkhuba lojwayelekile. Kusho kutsi kuchema kwangempela kwalobukhulu lobushiwo bekungatfolakala kane kulokuhlanu.

Lokuhlekisako

Umsindvo wehla njengo-1/√n. Kubeketela kwehla ngekushesha kunaloko.

Umsindvo wehla njengo-1/√n. Kubeketela kwehla ngekushesha kunaloko.

Imitfombo

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, luhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin (kuphelelwa yimali kwemgembuli), sehluko XIV.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1992.
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kubuyeketwe nga-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, licandza linyeindlela yekusebenta ↗imitfombo ↗