Ema-Eudaemons
Bafundzi be-physics, lisondvo lelikhasino lelatsengwa ngemali lesandleni, kanye nekhompyutha lencane ngalokwenele kutsi ingagcokwa uye nayo etafuleni.
Kusukela nga-1976 kuya ku-1981 licembu lebafundzi be-physics eSanta Cruz lakha emakhompyutha edijithali lebekalinganisa sikhatsi selibhola ne-rotor futsi asho sigaba selisondvo ngesikhatsi kubheja kusavulekile. Kuhlola kwabo kwetsembisa inzuzo yemdlali leyi-44% futsi iseshini lendze yekucala yaniketa cishe 25%. Imishini beyilokhu yehluleka, luhlobo lolwakhiwa ngekhatsi esicatfulweni lwehlulwa ngumsindvo wagesi nga-1981, futsi bawina tinkhulungwane letimbalwa temadola.
Umcondvo endzaweni yekunatsa eLas Vegas, 1975
Ehlobo la-1975 Norman Packard, umfundzi we-physics, wachitsa tinyanga letimbili abala emakhadi ku-blackjack eLas Vegas nemngani wakhe, Jack Biles, futsi bacishe nje balingana. Ngesinatfo sekugcina Biles watsi angabheja kutsi i-roulette ingancotjwa nge-physics, futsi Packard wakhumbula umugca loyimfihlakalo encwadzini yaEdward Thorp letsi Beat the Dealer mayelana nendlela ye-roulette. Bobabili baboleka sicopheli setelamsindvo, bema eceleni kwemasondvo emakhasino lamanyenti futsi bancokotsa imakrofoni ngaso sonkhe sikhatsi libholatinsitaLibholaLibhola lelincane leliphoswa emzileni lihamba ngakulolunye luhlangotsi kune-rotor. Emabhola alamuhla ayi-ivorine noma i-Teflon, 18–21 mm.Fundza konkhe → lidlula liphuzu lelingagudluki. Nakudvwetjwe ephepheni lemagrafu, kuncokotsa kwakhombisa libhola lehlisa sivinini liwa ngendlela lehlelekile. Umngani waPackard wasesikolweni Doyne Farmer, umfundzi lophotfulile e-University of California, Santa Cruz, wakubita ngekutsi kumosha sikhatsi kwaze kwaba ngulapho yena ngekwakhe enta tibalo: umuntfu longalinganisa sikhatsi selibhola kuze kube cishe yincenye yelishumi yemzuzwana kufanele, ephepheni, akhone kusho kutsi litawuma kuphi ngaphakatsi kwetinombolo letimbalwa.
Lisondvo elabhorethri ye-physics
Ngentfwasahlobo ya-1976 Farmer naDan Browne bakhokha $1,500 ngemali lesandleni ngelisondvo lelikhasino lelalungiswa kabusha endzaweni yekusebentela eReno, batsi belilelemcimbi we-fraternity. Etinyangeni letinyenti bebalitsatsa ebusuku baliyise elabhorethri yekufundzisa yenyuvesi futsi balilinganise ngetisetjentiswa tekuva te-infrared, liwashi le-elekthroniki labalakha ekhaya kanye nekhamera lebeyicaliswa ngumsindvo welibhola lishaya insimbi. Loko labakutfola kusesehluhlu lesifishane lesihle saloko lokubalulekile ekujikeleteni. Umoya wenta incenye lenkhulu yekwehlisa sivinini, kwengca umzila. Lisondvo lelingakalingani ngisho nangencenye yelishumi ye-intshi liyashintja lapho libhola lishiya khona umzila, futsi kulisondvo lelitsambekile libhola livame kuphuma ngasohlangotsini loluphakeme, loko kwenta kubikezela kube lula. Emabhola ayehlukana: libhola le-Teflon lehlisa sivinini kabili ngekushesha kunalelo lentiwe ngentfo yelibhola le-billiard. Futsi nase libhola lishiye umzila lisolo ligcuma, ngesilinganiso hhayi ngetulu kwencenye yesine kuya kwencenye yesitsatfu yekuzungeleta. Lokugcuma bekungumbuto lowawuncike kuwo lonkhe lipulani, futsi bekungakabanteki ngalokwenele kutsi kucedze kubikezela. Ekupheleni kwehlobo babeka inzuzo lengaba khona ku-44%, linani Thorp labelinikete ngesisetjentiswa sakhe.
Inkampani nephayi
Lomsebenti bawubita ngekutsi yi-Eudaemonic Enterprises, kusuka egameni lesiGriki lelisho injabulo yemphilo leyiphilwa ngekucabanga. Wonkhe muntfu lowasebenta kuwo bekafanele akhokhelwe ngemali lebeyitawuwinwa esikhatsini lesitako ngekwemahora lawafaka: sicephu saloko labakubita ngekutsi yi-Eudaemonic Pie. Imali lewinwako beyihloselwe kukhokhela umphakatsi webangani labenta sayensi ngendlela yabo.
Ikhompyutha ngaphansi kwesandla, 1976–1978
Umshini wekucala wakhula kusuka kukhompyutha leyakhiwa ngetincenye leyeta ngeposi ngaNyoni 1976 nga-$250, leyakhiwa nge-processor ye-6502 lebeyiphindze isetjentiswe ngemakhompyutha e-Apple. Farmer, lobekangakaze ahlele ikhompyutha ngaphambilini, wabhala kuyo tibalo telibhola kanye ne-rotortinsitaI-rotorIngcenye yelisondvo lejikeletako lephetse imigodzi.Fundza konkhe →. Luhlobo lwelikhasino belugcokwa lubotjelwe emtimbeni, ngaphansi kwesandla noma, kubomake, ebhodisini. Umdlali elisondvweni bekacindzetela tinkinobho ngetitsupho letikhulu temnwe: sitsupho sinye besiphawula licandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe → bese kuba libhola njalo nakudlula liphuzu lelingagudluki, lesinye besigucula luhlelo emkhatsini wetilungiselelo talo. Kulungisela luhlelo kulisondvo lelitsite bekutsatsa cishe imizuzu lengemashumi lamabili yekucindzetela ngekuthula. Ngemuva kwaloko, imizuzwana lembalwa ngemuva kwekucala kwekujikeleta ngakunye, ikhompyutha beyisho sigaba sinye kuto tigabalisondvoSigabaIngcenye lelandzelanako yemigodzi elisondvweni, lehlukile kulicembu letinombolo elithebuleni lekubheja.Fundza konkhe → letilisiphohlongo telisondvo, noma ikhombise “kungabhejwa”, ngekuvevetela emaphini lamancane esikhumbeni. Umdlali wesibili lobekakhashane etafuleni, lobekaxhumene ngesignali yerediyo lebutsakatsaka, bekeva lokuvevetela lokufanako futsi abheje tinombolo letintsatfu noma letine talesigaba, ngalesinye sikhatsi ashintjanisa ngenombolo leseceleni kwayo elisondvweni kute sakhiwo sibe matima kufundvwa.
Luhambo lwekucala, luya eLake Tahoe naseReno ngaNgongoni 1977, bekukwehluleka lokudze kwetisetjentiswa. Emavikini lambalwa ngemuva kwaloko, e-Golden Gate edolobheni laseLas Vegas, Farmer wadlala yedvwa emahora lamane nesigamu ngemasenti lalishumi ngelithokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe →. Inzuzo beyincane, kodvwa ekujikeleteni lokungemakhulu lambalwa yena naBrowne babeka inzuzo yemdlali, ngekucaphela, ku-25%.
Lihlobo la-1978
Ngalelo hlobo licembu ladlala ngekushintjana emavikini, edolobheni nase-Strip, tiseshini letimbili ngelilanga futsi akukaze kube likhasino lelinye ngebusuku lobulandzelanako. Bagcina incwadzi yekubhala ngelikhasino ngalinye: emasondvo alo nekutsi angakalingani kangakanani, tisebenti talo, kushintjana kwemashifti alo. Emasondvo aseLas Vegas atfolakala atsambekile ngalokusita futsi imidlalo yasebusuku ihamba kancane, lokuyiloko ikhompyutha beyikudzinga, ngobe i-rotor lehamba kancane nelibhola leliphutfuma kushiya sikhatsi lesinyenti sekulinganisa nekubheja. Bekunebusuku lobuhle. E-Circus Circus kushintjwa kwe-croupierbantfuI-croupierUmsebenti lophatse litafula le-roulette.Fundza konkhe → ngelihora lesibili ekuseni kwaphendula iseshini lebeyilahlekelwa yaba ngemakhulu lambalwa emadola ngemasenti langu-25 ngelithokheni. Futsi bekunekwehluleka lokuchubekako: tintsambo letikhululekile, kuxhumana kwerediyo lobekushintja ngekwekushisa, kushaywa ngugesi kusuka etintsanjeni te-antenna letitfungelwe emahembeni abo. Ngalobunye busuku emaphini avaleka, tintsambo tashisa kakhulu, futsi Ingrid Hoermann wachubeka nekudlala nanobe ashiswa esikhundleni sekushiya litafula lebekawina kulo. Tisebenti telikhasino tabona kuwina kodvwa atizange tiyibone indlela; kanye i-croupier, icansukile ngenca yesitaki lesikhulako semathokheni, yabamba lisondvo lelijikelekako yalijikisa ngemandla.
Etinyangeni letilishumi nakutsatfu benta tinhambo letilisiphohlongo eNevada futsi, babheja kakhulu ngemadayimi nangemakhotha, bawina tinkhulungwane letimbalwa temadola. Iseshini e-California Club ngaNgongoni 1978 yaletsa ngetulu kwe-$1,000 ngemahora lamatsatfu futsi yabenta bakholwe kutsi lendlela ifanelwe yimishini lencono.
Packard naBiles balinganisa sikhatsi semabhola e-roulette ngesicopheli setelamsindvo eLas Vegas.
Lisondvo lelikhasino latsengwa eReno; lihlobo lekulinganisa; ikhompyutha yekucala leyakhiwa ngetincenye.
Luhambo lwekucala lwelikhasino, eLake Tahoe naseReno. Tisetjentiswa tiyehluleka.
Golden Gate, eLas Vegas: emahora lamane nesigamu ngemanani emadayimi, inzuzo yemdlali ibekwa ku-25%.
Emaviki ekudlala eLas Vegas ikhompyutha igcokwe emtimbeni.
California Club: ngetulu kwe-$1,000 ngemahora lamatsatfu.
Ikhompyutha yakhiwa kabusha kute ingene esicatfulweni.
ELas Vegas: umsindvo wagesi ugcwala kuxhumana kwerediyo. Lomsebenti uyama.
INevada ivimba tisetjentiswa tekubikezela. I-The Eudaemonic Pie iyashicilelwa.
Ikhompyutha esicatfulweni, 1980–1981
Kute basuse tintsambo emitimbeni yabo bancuma kufaka konkhe etitfweni. Mark Truitt, losandza kuphotfula ku-physics lowaphuma enhlolokhono yemsebenti we-radar yemasotja, wachitsa umnyaka nesigamu kuko. Umcondvo lowenta kutsi kungene weta kuchwepheshe wenyuvesi: cima ikhompyutha emkhatsini wekubikezela, futsi idzinga emabhethri lambalwa kakhulu. Truitt wabeka ema-chip kumabhodi lamabili emasekhethi latikhandlela yena ngekwakhe, wawabeka lomunye ngetulu kwalomunye futsi wagcwalisa sikhala nge-wax lecinile, loko kwenta libhulokho lelingaba ngema-intshi lamabili ngalamane nangencenye ye-intshi kushuba lebeyingahanjwa ngetulu kwayo. Emabhethri, i-antenna kanye nalokubili kulokutsatfu lokuvevetelako kwangena esitsendzeni. Lokutsatfu lokuvevetelako ngetivinini letintsatfu kwaniketa tinsayini letiyimfica: tigaba letilisiphohlongo kanye na-“kungabhejwa”. Umlungisi wetitfulo wemba titfulo temalesela letijwayelekile futsi akazange abute lutfo.
NgaLweti 1981 Farmer nembhali Thomas Bass batsatsa titfulo kanye ne-$2,500 baya eLas Vegas. Etafuleni lekucala kubikezela kwekucala kwaphuma, bese lokuvevetelako kucala kusebenta ngaphandle kwekuhleleka. Emakhasino agcwele umsindvo wagesi, lovela kumakhamera ekucapha, etimphawini te-neon nakumishini ye-slot, futsi wagcwala kuxhumana kwerediyo lobutsakatsaka emkhatsini wetitfulo; ithelevishini ekamelweni lemotel yenta intfo lefanako. Tinsuku tekulungisa ngebantfu labane atizange tikulaphe, futsi lomsebenti wema lapho. Tisetjentiswa tangena ebhokisini lelikhulu ekamelweni langaphansi eSanta Cruz.
Kusho kutsini 44%
Kulisondvo laseMelika i-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe → iwina kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-38 ngesilinganiso futsi ikhokha 35 ku-1, lokubita umdlali 5.26%. Inzuzo yemdlali le-44% ilinani lalokubheja lokufanako nakuwina kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-25: emathokheni langu-36 ayabuya ngawo onkhe langu-25 labhejiwe. Ngako ikhompyutha ibingadzingi kwati inombolo. Bekufanele yente tinombolo letikhetfwe yona tiphume cishe kanye nesigamu kakhulu kunaloko lokuvunyelwa yinhlanhla.
Kungani inzuzo lenkhulu beyisolo iva njengekugembula
Inzuzo yemdlali nga-35 ku-1 ikhokha kancane futsi ngalokungalingani. Lomunye webeluleki belicembu waxwayisa kutsi umdlali lobheja $100 enombolweni angahle abe sewulahlekelwe $10,000 noma $20,000 ngaphambi kwekutsi inzuzo ibonakale, futsi tibalo tiyavumelana: ngenzuzo yemdlali le-44% etinombolweni letinye umdlali usolo asemuva ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100 cishe kanye kulokune. Ngiko loko ema-Eudaemons acala ngemadayimi akha imali yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe → yawo ngemali lewinwako, futsi ngiko loko Alan Lewis, lowahlanganyela nabo nga-1978, wachitsa sikhatsi sakhe ngekutsi kufanele kubhejwe malini. Kamuva Farmer wacabanga kutsi bebacaphele kakhulu. Emanani lamancane abagcina baphephile, futsi aphindze asho kutsi iminyaka yemsebenti yatfola kancane kakhulu.
Lokwabiza nalokwakhokha
Cishe $15,000 yangena etincenyeni, emathulusini kanye nasemholweni waTruitt, lenyenti yayo ivela kuFarmer naku-Letty Belin, ummeli lowagcina ashadile naye. Farmer wabalelwa emahora emsebenti langu-3,500, Truitt langu-3,000 kantsi Packard langu-2,000. Ngakulolunye luhlangotsi kunetinkhulungwane letimbalwa temadola letawinwa ngemanani lamancane. Nga-1983 Farmer wakhangisa emagazini wekugembula afuna batjalimali, achaza sibonelo lesinenzuzo yemdlali lefakazelwe elikhasino ye-20 kuya ku-40%. Ngesikhatsi ema-Eudaemons adlala, kucwaninga kwaBelin umtsetfo waseNevada akuzange kutfole lutfo lolwalela kubikezela umdlalo; ngaNkhwekhweti 1985 live lakwenta kwaba licala kusebentisa sisetjentiswa ngaloko. Lokwahlala kwaba yisayensi. Kwakha emakhompyutha kwacecesha Farmer, Packard nebangani babo kutsi bafundze i-chaos, lapho batakhela khona emagama.
Kufundza lencwadzi namuhla
Thomas Bass, lowabeka kubheja eluhambweni lwekugcina, walandzisa lendzaba ku-The Eudaemonic Pie (1985), leyakhiwa etinkhulumeni letindze nelicembu, futsi ingumtfombo walelikhasi. Umlandvo wayo lomfisha we-roulette awetsembeki njengekulandzisa kwayo lomsebenti. Iphindza indzaba yetisebenti letisitfupha letacashwa nguJagger, lebuyela emuva encwadzini ya-1901 kuphela (buka Joseph Jagger), futsi ibeka kuhlola kwelikhasino kwaThorp naShannon nga-1962, kantsi tindzaba taThorp ngekwakhe titsi kwaba lihlobo la-1961.
Imibuto
Cha. Bawina tinkhulungwane letimbalwa temadola ngemanani emadayimi nemakhotha, futsi bachitsa cishe $15,000 kanye netinkhulungwane letinyenti temahora.
Ngesikhatsi badlala, iNevada beyingenawo umtsetfo lomelana nekubikezela umdlalo ngesisetjentiswa. Selinawo kusukela nga-1985, futsi tindzawo letinyenti letinemakhasino nyalo tinawo.
Akusiko lapho kubheja kuvalwa khona ngesikhatsi libhola lijikijelwa, njengasema-studio lasakata bukhoma, futsi kutsatsa sisetjentiswa lesinjalo ungene naso elikhasino licala etindzaweni letinyenti.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Ema-Eudaemons acabanga kutsi ikhompyutha yawo beyinelinani la-44% ku-straight upkubhejaI-straight upInombolo yinye, kukhokha 35:1.Fundza konkhe → elisondvweni laseMelika, lapho kubheja kukhokha 35 ku-1. Inombolo lekhetsiwe kufanele iwine kangakhi kute loko kube liciniso? Futsi kubikezela bekutawudzinga kukhipha imigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lemingakhi kulengu-38, nangabe libholatinsitaLibholaLibhola lelincane leliphoswa emzileni lihamba ngakulolunye luhlangotsi kune-rotor. Emabhola alamuhla ayi-ivorine noma i-Teflon, 18–21 mm.Fundza konkhe → belinelitfuba lelilinganako lekungena kunobe nguwuphi kuleminye?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-25. Loko kufanana nekukhipha imigodzi lengu-13 bese kusala lengu-25.
LithokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe → lelewinako libuya nalamanye langu-35: emathokheni langu-36. Nangabe inombolo iwina kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-n, emathokheni langu-n labhejiwe abuyisa 36, ngako kubheja kunelinani la-36/n − 1.
Kwente kube ngu-0.44: 36/n = 1.44, ngako n = 25. Ngaphandle kwekubikezela n ngu-38 futsi kubheja kunelinani la-36/38 − 1 = −5.26%.
Nyalo cabanga kutsi kubikezela kukhipha imigodzi lengu-k futsi libhola linelitfuba lelilinganako lekungena kumgodzi ngamunye kulengu-38 − k lesele. Lithokheni kunowunye walemigodzi liwina kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-38 − k. Kute sitfole 44% sidzinga 38 − k = 25, ngako k = 13: kancane ngetulu kwengcenye yesitsatfu yelisondvo.
Encwadzini kutsiwa Farmer watsi 40% kuvela ekukhipheni imigodzi lesiphohlongo. Kulesimodeli lesilula lesiphohlongo kunika 36/30 − 1 = 20%, ngako sitfombe sangempela kufanele besingalingani: leminye imigodzi lesele beyinelitfuba lelikhulu kakhulu kunalenye.
imigodzi lekhishiweimigodzi leselei-straight up inelinani038−5.26%2360%830+20%1325+44%1919+89%Cabanga kutsi inombolo yakho iyawina ngempela kanye ekujikeleteni lokungu-25 nga-35 ku-1, inzuzo ya-44%. Ubheja lithokheni linye ngekujikeleta. Kungenteka kangakanani kutsi ube semuva ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100? Ngemuva kwalokungu-500?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Cishe 23% ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100 futsi kusesecishe kube 6% ngemuva kwalokungu-500.
Ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-100 usubheje emathokheni langu-100, futsi kuwina ngakunye kubuyisa 36. Kuwina lokubili kubuyisa 72, kulahlekelwa kwa-28; lokutsatfu kubuyisa 108, inzuzo ya-8. Ngako usemuva nangabe uwina kabili nobe kancane.
Litfuba lekungawini ekujikeleteni lokungu-100 ngu-(24/25)¹⁰⁰ = 1.7%. Kuwina kunye ncamashi: 100 × (1/25) × (24/25)⁹⁹ = 7.0%. Lokubili ncamashi: 4,950 × (1/25)² × (24/25)⁹⁸ = 14.5%. Kanyekanye 23.2%.
Ngemuva kwekujikeleta lokungu-500 udzinga kuwina lokungu-14 kute ube embili (14 × 36 = 504), futsi silinganiso ngu-20. Litfuba la-13 nobe ngaphansi licishe libe ngu-6.2%.
Lolu luhlangotsi lolunye lwekubheja lokunematfuba lamancane. Inzuzo yinkhulu, futsi cishe kulokukodvwa kulokune kwekujikeleta lokungu-100 ayibonakali. Umdlali longati ngekuciniseka kutsi inzuzo ikhona angeke ahlukanise sikhatsi lesibi kunekhompyutha lephukile, lokusimo lebekuvame kuba kuso ema-Eudaemons.
kujikeletakuwina lokudzingekako kute ube embililitfuba lekuba semuva50240.1%100323.2%200618.6%500146.2%Incwadzi itsi ngenzuzo ya-44%, $100 lobhejwa tikhatsi letingu-50 ngelihora kufanele utfole $2,200 ngelihora. Kuhlole. Bese ubala kutsi lenzuzo lefanako yatfola malini ngemanani lelicembu lalibheja ngawo ngempela: i-dime ngekujikeleta.
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo $2,200 kulungile nga-$100 ngekujikeleta. Nge-dime ngekujikeleta ngu-$2.20 ngelihora.
Inzuzo yingcenye yako konkhe lokubhejiwe. Nga-$100 ngekujikeleta nekujikeleta lokungu-50 ngelihora, kubhejwa $5,000, futsi 44% waloko ngu-$2,200.
Ngemasenti langu-10 ngekujikeleta, kubhejwa $5 ngelihora, futsi 44% we-$5 ngu-$2.20. Nanoma kumbozwa tinombolo letine nge-dime ngayinye, kungu-$8.80 ngelihora kubantfu lababili.
Licembu labheja kancane ngobe belakha imali yekubhejaimaliImali yekubhejaImali yonkhe lebekelwe kudlala. Kuphatsa imali yekubheja kusho kunquma kutsi ungafaka engcupheni lengakanani kuko kubheja ngakunye nakuyo iseshini ngayinye.Fundza konkhe → lisuka ekuntfweni, futsi ngobe, njengoba inkinga lengenhla ikhombisa, inzuzo ya-44% nga-35 ku-1 ingalahlekelwa emahora. Intsengo yaleko kucaphela kwaba kutsi indlela beyingasebenta kahle ngalokuphelele kodvwa ikhokhe kancane kunemsebenti.
Lokuhlekisako
I-physics yasebenta. I-neon yawina.
Imitfombo
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. “The invention of the first wearable computer.”
- Nevada Revised Statutes, sehluko 465.