Tibalo te-roulette · Inkinga yetibalo · emaminithi 7

Inkinga: Emadazini lamabili nelithokheni linye

Emadazini lamabili amboza tinombolo letingu-24. Engeta lithokheni elicandzeni futsi umboza letingu-25. Lomshwalensi uyakhokha yini?

Imphendvulo lemfisha

Cha. Incenye ngayinye ingu-−2.70% welinani layo lelibhejwako, ngako kuhlanganiswa kungu-−2.70% welinani lonkhe. Lenkinga ichaza kutsi kungani, ibala kusabalala lokunembile, futsi ikhombisa kutsi yini lokugucukako (simo) naloko lokungagucuki (intsengo).

emadazini lamabili
24/37 · lokuhlantekile +1 nobe −2
kanye nelicandza
25/37 kumbozekile
EV ngeliyunithi
−1/37 nobe kunjani
sifundvo
ema-EV ayahlanganiswa

Inkinga

Ubheja $10 kulidazinikubhejaLidazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha 2:1.Fundza konkhe → lekucala, $10 kulidazini lesibili kanye na-$1 elicandzenilisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe →. (a) Ngumiphi imiphumela lengaba khona nematfuba ayo? (b) Lingakanani linani lelilindzelekiletibaloLinani lelilindzelekileUmphumela wesilinganiso ngekubheja ngakunye ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lesidze. −1/37 yelinani lelibhejiwe kuko konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe →? (c) LithokheniimaliLithokheniLuphawu lolumele linani lelingagucuki, lolubekwa kulithebula lekubheja kute ubheje. Lelinye ligama: check.Fundza konkhe → lelicandza liyakwenta kube ncono yini kubheja?

Sisombululo (a) kanye (b)

Imiphumela: libholatinsitaLibholaLibhola lelincane leliphoswa emzileni lihamba ngakulolunye luhlangotsi kune-rotor. Emabhola alamuhla ayi-ivorine noma i-Teflon, 18–21 mm.Fundza konkhe → ku-1–24 (imigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lengu-24): lidazini linye likhokha $20, lelinye lilahlekelwa $10, licandza lilahlekelwa $1: lokuhlantekile +$9. Libhola ku-25–36 (imigodzi lengu-12): womabili emadazini ayalahlekelwa, licandza liyalahlekelwa: −$21. Libhola elicandzeni (umgodzi 1): emadazini alahlekelwa $20, licandza likhokha $35: +$15. EV = (24 × 9 + 1 × 15 − 12 × 21)/37 = (216 + 15 − 252)/37 = −21/37 ≈ −$0.57 ekujikeleteni nga-$21 lebhejiwe: 2.70%.

umphumelaimigodzilitfubaumphumela wemali
1–242464.9%+$9
25–361232.4%−$21
012.7%+$15
lokulindzelekile−$0.57 = 2.70% wa-$21

Sisombululo (c)

Ngaphandle kwelithokheni lelicandza: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = (240 − 260)/37 = −20/37 ≈ −$0.54 nga-$20 lebhejiwe, nako kungu-2.70%. Lithokheni lelicandza liguculile umphumela welicandza wa-−$20 waba ngu-+$15 (kuba ncono nga-$35 kanye ku-37, lokunelinani le-$0.95 ekujikeleteni ngakunye) futsi labita $1 kulokunye kujikeleta lokungu-36 (lokunelinani le-$0.97 ekujikeleteni ngakunye). Inguculo lehlantekile: −$0.03 ekujikeleteni ngakunye, lokungu-2.70% weludola lolwengetiwe. Lomshwalensi unentsengo ncamashi njengako konkhe lokunye.

Kungani loku kusebenta kuyo yonkhe indzawo

Emanani lalindzelekile ayahlanganiswa. Nobe nguliphi licembu lekubheja ngesikhatsi sinye line-EV lelingana nesamba sema-EV etincenye, lapho ngayinye ingu-−1/37 welinani layo lelibhejwako. Ngako nobe nguyiphi inhlanganisela ingu-−1/37 welinani lonkhe lelibhejwako. Akukho kuhlelwa kwemathokheni elithebuleni lekubhejatinsitaLithebula lekubhejaLithebula lekubheja leliphrintiwe etafuleni. Lamanye emagama: litafula, i-felt, indvwangu.Fundza konkhe →, nanoma angakanani, lokuphunyula kuloku; lithulusi Umakhi wekubheja litakucinisekisa loko kunobe nguliphi licembu longalibeka. Loko tinhlanganisela letikuguculako kusabalala: kutsi uwina kangakanani, ngamalini, nekutsi simo lesibi kakhulu sibi kangakanani.

Le-$21 lefanako ngetindlela letintsatfu: litfuba lekuwina nesimo lesibi kakhulu
$21 kulokubovu: p(kuwina)
48.6% · lokubi kakhulu −$21
emadazini lamabili + licandza: p(kuwina)
67.6% · lokubi kakhulu −$21
$21 ku-17: p(kuwina)
2.7% · lokubi kakhulu −$21
033.8067.6% · lokubi kakhulu −$21
Kontsatfu kune-EV ya-−$0.57 ekujikeleteni ngakunye. Kwehlukile ngesimo kuphela.

Lokulandzelako lokulukhuni

Tfola inhlanganisela yekubheja lokujwayelekile lokumboza tonkhe tinombolo letingu-37. Emadazini lamatsatfu ($10 ngalinye) kanye na-$1 elicandzeni: nobe nguyiphi ku-1–36 inika lokuhlantekile −$1 (lidazini linye likhokha $20, lamanye lamabili alahlekelwa $20, licandza lilahlekelwa $1), futsi licandza linika lokuhlantekile +$35 − $30 = +$5. EV = (36 × (−1) + 5)/37 = −31/37 nga-$31 lebhejiwe: 2.70%. Ungacinisekisa kutsi awukaze umangale, kodvwa usakhokha intsengo lefanako ngalelilungelo.

Lifomula

EV(inhlanganisela) = Σ EV(tincenye) = −(linani lonkhe lelibhejwako)/37

Imibuto

Ikhona yini inhlanganisela yekubheja lenenzuzo yelikhasino lencane?

Cha, etafuleni laseYurophu. Etafuleni laseFulansi, kubheja lokulingana nemalikubhejaKubheja lokulingana nemaliLokubovu/lokumnyama, lengalingani/lelinganako, phansi/etulu. Tinombolo letingu-18, kukhokha 1:1.Fundza konkhe → kodvwa kungu-1.35%; kwengeta nobe yini lenye kukhuphula inzuzo yelikhasino lehlanganisiwe.

Kutsiwani ngekubheja kokubili lokubovu nalokumnyama?

Kulahlekelwa $1 nge-$1 elicandzeni kuphela, akuwini lutfo ngalesinye sikhatsi. EV −2.70% ngaphandle kwenzuzo: yinhlanganisela yinye lengenalusito nekancane.

Ngako kungani uhlanganisa kubheja?

Kute ukhetse simo seseshini lositsandzako. Leso sizatfu lesiliciniso futsi sinye kuphela.

Lokuhlekisako

Umshwalensi etafuleni le-roulette ubita ncamashi loko lokongako.

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Imitfombo

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Sehluko 13, i-roulette.
kubuyeketwe nga-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, licandza linyeindlela yekusebenta ↗imitfombo ↗