Blaise Pascal: Inganekwane yelisondvo le-roulette
Sati setibalo lesivamise kutsiwa nguye lowasungula lisondvo, kantsi bekazama kwakha lokunye.
Pascal (1623–1662) wenta tivivinyo ngemishini yekunyakata lokungapheli ngema-1650. Lisondvo lelijikelekako lelingenako kuhuzuleka lokunyenti lelitsiwa ngelakhe kungenteka kutsi lingukhokho we-rotor ye-roulette; kodvwa lelo vo lisuka emasikweni, alibhalwanga ngebufakazi.
Sati setibalo
Blaise Pascal wakha umshini wekubala lowenyakatiswa ngetandla aneminyaka lelishumi nesishiyagalolunye, wafakazela imiphumela ku-projective geometry asesemusha, wenta umsebenti lowasisekelo ngengcindzezelo kanye ne-vacuum, kantsi nga-1654, etincwadzini lebetibhalelana na-Pierre de Fermat, wacatulula “inkinga yemaphuzu”: kutsi tingahlukaniswa njani ngekulingana timali tekubheja temdlalo wetfuba lowente waphazamiseka. Imphendvulo yabo, kuhlukanisa ngekuya nge-litfubatibaloLitfubaLitfuba lekutsi umphumela wenteke, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo yinye: 1/37 = 2.70%.Fundza konkhe → lemdlali ngamunye lekuwina kube umdlalo bewuchubeka, ingumsuka we-linani lelilindzelekiletibaloLinani lelilindzelekileUmphumela wesilinganiso ngekubheja ngakunye ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lesidze. −1/37 yelinani lelibhejiwe kuko konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe →. Kubala ngakunye kwe-EV kulelisayithi kusuka kuleto tincwadzi.
Bewukhona yini umshini we-roulette waBlaise Pascal?
Ekhatsi nema-1650 Pascal wasebenta ngemshini wekunyakata lokungapheli futsi kutsiwa wakha lisondvo lelilinganiswe kahle lebelijikeleta sikhatsi lesidze ngekuhuzuleka lokuncane. Indzaba yekutsi lelisondvo laba yi-rotortinsitaI-rotorIngcenye yelisondvo lejikeletako lephetse imigodzi.Fundza konkhe → ye-roulette iphindzwa emilandvweni leminyenti kodvwa ayibhalwanga kunoma ngumuphi umtfombo wekucala. Kungenteka kutsi bacondzisi bemadolobha emanti lashisako ngelikhulu le-18 basebentisa leligama kute bakhangise. Akusiyo intfo Lilabhorethri lengayemukela ngalobufakazi.
Litfuba, ngemavi akhe nangalawetfu
Tincwadzi tanga-1654 atiyikhulumi i-roulette, lebeyingakabi khona. Tibuta kutsi: badlali lababili badzinga emaphuzu lamatsatfu kute bawine imali; bema ku-2–1; imali kufanele ihlukaniswe njani? Imphendvulo yaPascal isebentisa loko lesingakubita nyalo ngekutsi linani lelilindzelekile lelinesimo, kanye nemphikiswano lophindzaphindzekako lowehla esihlahleni sendlela tonkhe umdlalo lobewungachubeka ngato. Huygens wafundza leto tincwadzi futsi nga-1657 washicilela incwadzi yekucala yekufundza ngelinani lelilindzelekile. Ligama lelitsi “expectation” ngelakhe.
Pascal na-Fermat bacatulula inkinga yemaphuzu: linani lelilindzelekile njengelinani lelilungile lesimo.
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae: kuchazwa kwekucala lokushicilelwe kwelinani lelilindzelekile.
Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi: umtsetfo wetinombolo letinkhulu.
I-roulette ichazwa eParis. Inkhokhelo ngayinye ingu-36/n − 1: EV = −1/37 (noma −2/38).
Kuhlolwa kwe-chi-square kwaPearson, kukhonjiswa ngekujikeleta kwe-roulette.
Konkhe lokungenhla, kulelisayithi, ku-browser.
Kubheja kwaPascal
Imphikiswano yaPascal leyatiwa kakhulu mayelana nekubheja ayikhulumi nge-roulette kodvwa ngaNkulunkulu: “kubheja” lokuku-Pensées lokubona kukholwa njengekubheja lokunemvuzo longapheli. Kumphikiswano we-linani lelilindzelekile, futsi kukwekucala kutsi umuntfu asebentise i-decision theory kute aphikisane ngalokutsite. Badlali be-roulette labacela Pascal mayelana nelisondvo bacela Pascal longasiye; lobalulekile nguloyo lowakhombisa kutsi kubheja kubekwa njani linani.
Kuphambana
Noma Pascal wakha lisondvo le-roulette lekucala noma cha, umdlalo ungumfanekiso lomuhle wemsebenti wakhe wangempela: lithulusi lelisuka kumuntfu lowafakazela kutsi ungeke utfole lutfo ngaphandle kwekunikela ngalutfo (kunyakata lokungapheli kuyehluleka; linani lelilindzelekile aliguguleki), lelisetjentiswa kukhombisa khona loko kubadlali labetigidzi letimbalwa ngemnyaka.
Imibuto
Bekahamba etigabeni tebagembuli eParis ekucaleni kwema-1650, futsi kungaleyo ndlela inkinga yemaphuzu yamfika ngaChevalier de Méré. Kute irekhodi lekutsi wake wadlala ngemali ngalokucinile.
Ngobe yindzaba lenhle futsi ngobe bakhangisi bemakhasino belikhulu le-19 bebayitsandza. Yiphindze ngelinothi lelingentasi.
Lokuhlekisako
Wafakazela kutsi ungeke utfole lutfo mahhala. Bese umuntfu wakha likhasino ngetulu kwaloko.
Imitfombo
- Pascal, B. & Fermat, P. Correspondence on the problem of points.
- Huygens, C. De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae.
- Kavanagh, T. M. Dice, Cards, Wheels: A Different History of French Culture.