Inganekwane: Lisu le-roulette leliwina njalo
“Nginaluhlelo loluwina ku-80% wetikhatsi.” Ungaba nalo. Kodvwa lusalahlekelwa yimali.
Luhlelo lungenta tiseshini letiwinako tivame. Angeke lwente linani lelilindzelekile libe ngetulu kwalicandza, ngobe konkhe kubheja lolukwentako kungu-−1/37 welinani lelibhejwako, futsi emanani lalindzelekile ayahlanganiswa. Tinhlelo letiwina kanyenti kakhulu tilahlekelwa kakhulu natilahlekelwa.
Lokushiwoko
Inkolelo: kulenye indzawo kukhona lisu le-roulette leliwina njalo, luhlelo lwekushintja emanani labhejwako ngekwemiphumela leyendlulile loluguculela i-roulette ibe ngumdlalo lowinako. Bufakazi lobunikwako: luchungechunge lwetiseshini letiwinile, ividiyo yekutsi ungawina njani ku-roulette ngaso sonkhe sikhatsi, bufakazi bemuntfu, i-spreadsheet yeliviki lelinenhlanhla. Lokushiwoko kuvamise kuba ngekwetsembeka; umuntfu ukukholwa ngobe bekusebenta.
Kungani kungasilo liciniso, ngemugca munye
Emanani lalindzelekiletibaloLinani lelilindzelekileUmphumela wesilinganiso ngekubheja ngakunye ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi lesidze. −1/37 yelinani lelibhejiwe kuko konkhe kubheja lokujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Fundza konkhe → ayahlanganiswa. Nangabe kubheja ngakunye kune-EV = −1/37 welinani lelibhejwako, nanoma nguluphi luchungechunge lwekubheja lune-EV = −1/37 walokubhejiwe konkhe, nanoma ngumuphi umtsetfo lowakhetsa emanani. Luhlelo ngumtsetfo wekukhetsa emanani labhejwako. Ngako-ke yonkhe tinhlelo tine-EV = −1/37 wemali yonkhe lebhejiweimaliImali yonkhe lebhejiweLinani lonkhe lelibhejwe ngesikhatsi seseshini noma ngesikhatsi lesitsite, kubalwa nemali lewiniwe lephindze yabhejwa. Kuphindze kutsiwe: handle, action.Fundza konkhe →. Lena yi-theorem (Doob na-Halmos bayifakazela ngema-1930; Thorp 1969 usho imibandzela), futsi ayinako lokuhlukile kwemitsetfo lehlakaniphile. Umbandzela munye lofanele kwatiwa kubheja lokuncane kakhulu: sibonelo sa-Thorp sibheja $1,000 kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe →, bese emasenti langu-90, bese emasenti langu-9 njalo njalo, kwehla kuze kube phakadze. Ngelitfuba la-18/37 kubheja kwekucala kuyawina futsi umdlali uhlala aphambili phakadze, nanoma umphumela lolindzelekile usengu-−1/37 wako konkhe lokubhejiwe. Lokuncane kakhulu kwelitafula langempela kuyakumisa loko, futsi kanye nako lonkhe litsemba lekuhlala uphambili ekuhambeni kwesikhatsi lesidze.
Kuhlangana ngekuhamba kwesikhatsi: Umtsetfo wetinombolo letinkhulu ku-roulette
Kungani kubonakala kusebenta
Kwenyuswa kwelinanilisuKwenyuswa kwelinaniNoma ngumuphi umtsetfo loshintja linani lelibhejwako ngekuya kwemiphumela yangaphambilini. Kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, kwenyuswa kwelinani ngemuva kwekuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kwekuwina.Fundza konkhe → ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa kwenta tiseshini letiwinako tivame. I-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → kusuka ku-$10 nemkhawulo wa-$500 icedza cishe ku-80% wetiseshini tekujikeleta lokungu-100 iphambili ngemayunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → lambalwa. Umdlali loyisebentisa etiseshinini letimashumi lamabili uwina letilishumi nesitfupha tato futsi ukhumbula loko. Tiseshini letine letilahlekelwako ngayinye ilahlekelwa kakhulu kunaloko tiseshini letilishumi letiwinako letikutfolako, futsi tibalo tetiseshini letimashumi lamabili tingephansi kwalicandza. Luhlelo alukashintji silinganiso; lususele kulahlekelwa etiseshinini letimbalwa letinkhulu lapho kumelula kukubita ngekutsi bumanyamane.
Kuhlola lokungentiwa nguwonkhe muntfu
Silingisi selisu kulelisayithi sigijimisa tiseshini letingu-10,000 tanoma ngabuphi luhlelo, noma ikhodi yakho, ngesekhondi linye. Sibeke eluhlelweni lolukholwako bese ufundza silinganiso. Nangabe silinganiso besingetulu kwalicandza kunoma ngukuphi kuhlela, lelikhasi belitawusho njalo. Konkhe kuhlela, tonkhe tinhlelo, wonkhe umkhawulo welitafulalitafulaUmkhawulo welitafulaLinani lelincane nalelikhulu kakhulu lekubheja lelivunyelwe. Umkhawulo lophakeme ngiwo lomisa kwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kabili.Fundza konkhe → kunika silinganiso sa-−2.70% wemali yonkhe lebhejiwe kanye nemsindvo. Bufakazi bebantfu tisampula temuntfu munye; silingisi tisampula tetinkhulungwane letilishumi.
Luhlelo lolungeke lulahlekelwe
Nga-1997 umbhali we-poker Mike Caro washicilela luhlelo lwe-roulette njengelihlaya, futsi Gambling Times yaluphindza yalushicilela nga-2001. Luhlu lwekubheja lokufanele kugwenywe: ungaze ubheje kulokubovu noma kulokumnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe →, tinombolo letingalingani noma letilinganako, noma emacandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe →; kute tinombolo letibovu letingalingani futsi kute letimnyama letilinganako; futsi kute lutfo ku-30, noma eluchungechungeni lolude lwemigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → kusuka ku-11 kulandzela tinkhombandlela tewashi kuya ku-14 elisondvweni laseMelika. Hlanganisa imitsetfo futsi kute inombolo lesele. Imigodzi kuphela lengaphandle kwaloluchungechunge ngu-0, 28, 9, 26, 30 na-2; 30 yenqatjelwe ngelibito, futsi letinye licandza, inombolo lelinganako lemnyama, noma lengalingani lebovu. Umdlali lolandzela lolu luhlelo akaze abheje futsi akaze alahlekelwe. Inzuzo yalo ngulicandza, futsi kulo lodvwa luhlelo lwe-roulette lolwetsembekile ngekutsi lufika njani lapho.
Tinhlelo letinemagama, ngemugca munye ngamunye
Tinhlelo letitsengiswa ngaphansi kwelibito, noma njengefomula yekuwina ku-roulette, atehlukile. Ngulunye luhlelo lwekubheja, futsi konkhe kubheja kukhokha lisondvo i-2.70% yalo. Bollman (2024) uhlolisisa letimbalwa telisondvo laseMelika, lapho ngulunye lubita 5.26%; lapha tiku-lelisondvo laseYurophu.
Inguculo leyetsembekile
Tinhlelo tishintja simo seseshini: kutsi uwina kangakanani, kutsi kuwina kukhulu kangakanani, kutsi simo lesibi kakhulu sibi kangakanani. Leto tincumo tangempela futsi umdlali angatsandza simo sinye kunalesinye. Loko tinhlelo letingakushintji yintsengo, lengu-2.70% wako konkhe lokubhejiwe, futsi ngobe kwenyuswa kwelinani kubheja lokunyenti kunekubheja ngelinani linyelisuKubheja ngelinani linyeKubheja linani lelifanako kuko konkhe kujikeleta. Lizinga lesisekelo lekucatsaniswa nalo konkhe kwenyuswa kwelinani.Fundza konkhe →, kukhokha lokunyenti kwayo.
Imibuto
Tinyanga letisitfupha tetiseshini teliviki ngaliviki cishe tiseshini letingu-25. I-Martingale iwina ku-80% waleto. Tiseshini letilahlekelwako tiyeta, futsi tinkhulu.
Umtsetfo wekuma wehlisa imali yonkhe lebhejiwe ngako wehlisa kulahlekelwa lokulindzelekiletibaloKulahlekelwa lokulindzelekileLinani lelilindzelekile liphindzaphindzwe ngemali yonkhe lebhejiwe; linani lesilinganiso lelilahlekako eseshinini noma esikhatsini lesitsite.Fundza konkhe →. Awukwenti kube ngetulu kwalicandza.
Hhayi elisondvweni lelingachemile. Elisondvweni lelichemilelilabhorethriLisondvo lelichemileLisondvo lapho tici talo temtimba tenta leminye imigodzi ibe nematfuba langetulu kwa-1/37. Kuyindlalane, kutfolakala kuphela ngekujikeleta lokutinkhulungwane lokubhaliwe.Fundza konkhe →, lokuyinkinga ye-physics, hhayi luhlelo.
Bumnandi betibalo
Zama loku ngekwakho kucala. Sixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule nawukulungele.
Luhlelo lwekuhlekisa lwaMike Caro lwa-1997 lwelisondvo laseMelika luyakuvimbela kubheja kulokubovukubhejaBovuKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letibovu. NgesiFulentji: rouge.Fundza konkhe → nakulokumnyamakubhejaMnyamaKubheja lokulingana nemali etinombolweni letingu-18 letimnyama. NgesiFulentji: noir.Fundza konkhe →, kulengalingani nakulelinganako, kanye nemacandzalisondvoLicandzaUmgodzi munye loluhlata longambonjwa kubheja lokulingana nemali, kwelidazini noma kwelikholamu; umtfombo wenzuzo yelikhasino. Kuphindze kutsiwe: licandza linye, 0.Fundza konkhe →; tinombolo letibovu letingalingani naletimnyama letilinganako; inombolo 30; kanye nayo yonkhe imigodzitinsitaUmgodziLesinye setikhala letingu-37 letinetinombolo ku-rotor. Kuphindze kutsiwe: slot, cup.Fundza konkhe → lesechungechungeni kusukela ku-11 ngekuhamba kwemsunguli kuya ku-14. Sebentisa imitsetfo ngawunye ngawunye. Ngutiphi tinombolo letisele tekubheja?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Kute. Luhlelo alukaze lubheje, ngako inzuzo yalo ngulicandza ncamashi.
Kuvimbela lokubovu, lokumnyama, lengalingani, lelinganako nemacandza kushiya tinombolo letitimele nemacembu lamancane ku-1 kuya ku-36.
Kungabi khona letibovu letingalingani naletimnyama letilinganako kushiya letibovu letilinganako (12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34, 36) naletimnyama letingalingani (11, 13, 15, 17, 29, 31, 33, 35): tinombolo letilishumi nesitfupha. Kuvimbela 30 kushiya letilishumi nesihlanu.
Elisondvweni laseMelika luchungechunge kusukela ku-11 ngekuhamba kwemsunguli kuya ku-14 lufaka imigodzi lengu-32 kulengu-38. Lemisitfupha lengaphandle kwalo ngu-0, 28, 9, 26, 30 na-2. Tonkhe letilishumi nesihlanu letisindzile tingekhatsi kwaluchungechunge, ngako umtsetfo wekugcina uyatisusa nato. Luhlelo lolungakaze lubheje ngulo lodvwa lolungakaze lulahlekelwe, lokuyiko Caro lebekafuna kukusho.
I-Kryptos isebentisa ema-MartingalelisuMartingaleKwenyuswa kwelinani lokuphindza kubheja kabili ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa ngakunye. Buka sigaba semasu kute ubone kutsi kwentani nekutsi akwenti ini.Fundza konkhe → lamatsatfu ngesikhatsi sinye, linye kulelo nalelo pheya lekubheja lokulingana nemalikubhejaKubheja lokulingana nemaliLokubovu/lokumnyama, lengalingani/lelinganako, phansi/etulu. Tinombolo letingu-18, kukhokha 1:1.Fundza konkhe → (etulu nobe phansi, lengalingani nobe lelinganako, lokubovu nobe lokumnyama), ngemanani labhejwako 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 nekuma ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa lokusitfupha. Tsatsa linye kulamatsatfu elisondvweni laseYurophu. Kuvama kangakanani kutsi lilahlekelwe kubheja lokusitfupha konkhe, umjikeleto munye utfola malini ngesilinganiso, futsi leyo yincenye lengakanani yemali lebhejiwe?
Khombisa sixazululo
Imphendvulo Lilahlekelwa kokusitfupha cishe kanye emijikeletweni lengu-55, 1.83% wesikhatsi, futsi loko kubita emayunithiimaliLiyunithiLinani lelibhejwako lelisisekelo luhlelo noma umdlali lasebenta ngalo. Kwenyuswa kwelinani kuchazwa ngemayunithi kute kusebente kunoma ngumuphi litafula.Fundza konkhe → langu-63. Ngesilinganiso umjikeleto ulahlekelwa cishe emayunithi la-0.17 kulangu-6.42 labhejiwe: 2.70%, intsengo yako konkhe kubheja elisondvweni.
Kubheja kulahlekelwa ngelitfuba la-19/37, kufaka nelicandza. Lokusitfupha ngekulandzelana: (19/37)⁶ = 0.0183, cishe 1 ku-55, bese emanani labhejwako 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 + 32 = 63 ayahamba. Ngaphandle kwaloko umjikeleto uphela ngekuwina na-+1 liyunithi.
Silinganiso: 1 × (1 − 0.0183) − 63 × 0.0183 = 1 − 64 × 0.0183 = emayunithi la-−0.17.
Imali lebhejiwe: kubheja kwekucala kuhlala kwentiwa, kwesibili kuphela ngemuva kwekulahlekelwa, njalo njalo: 1 + 2 × (19/37) + 4 × (19/37)² + … + 32 × (19/37)⁵ = emayunithi la-6.42. Futsi −0.17/6.42 = −2.70%.
Kujikeleta lokusitfupha lokubhaliwe kunquma kuphela kutsi kubheja ngakunye kulohlangotsi luphi, futsi lisondvo angeke likwati. Kusebentisa onkhe lamatsatfu kuphindzaphindza kantsatfu imali lebhejiwe kanye nekulahlekelwa ngesilinganiso. Bollman (2024) usebentisa luhlelo elisondvweni laseMelika, lapho ngamunye wato ulahlekelwa kasitfupha ngekulandzelana 2.1% wesikhatsi.
Lokuhlekisako
Kuwina kanyenti nekuwina imali tinombolo letehlukene.
Imitfombo
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. The Mathematics of Gambling.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Bollman, M. Mathematics of the Big Four Casino Table Games: Blackjack, Baccarat, Craps, & Roulette.
- Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed.